Thursday 14 February 2013

EURUSD, Friday, Feb 15, 2013

Hi Traders,

Here some good news first.

  1. We moved back the webinars to 7pm (from 8pm)
  2. From Wednesday 20th, we are going to run 2 webinars each Wednesday:
  • one at 7pm (Sydney time)
  • one at 7pm (Perth time)
This way everyone in Australia, Singapore, Indonesia and around the  same longitude wiil be able to attend our webinars. Hence, the next one is scheduled for Wed, Feb 20, 7 (NOT 8pm).

Back to Trading Markets now.


Markets seem to be reversing quickly - almost every market - and so the EURUSD.

As you can see by the monthly chart below the EURUSD has reached the same top of January 2004 and then it started reversing. 
Now, if this is a "two step pattern" like it seems to be - a three wave pattern up - there is NOT going to be any wave 4 and 5 up.

Hence, this new downtrend could take the pair to some of the below mentioned targets, according to the completion and amplitude of the new 5 waves down, being the first two targets more likely to be reached:

  • 1.230
  • 1.191
  • 1.160
  • 1.121
  • 1.065

Judging by the weekly chart below the two-step-pattern seems to be  completed and the new downtrend has started already. See the reversal candlestick as a confirmation.

The daily chart below shows the nearest target being at 1.33 (blue line) - for those of you who want to take a short downtrade - but also even lower if the area 1.3188-1.3139 is reached. Then there should be a retracement up in three waves.

There are 4 well shaped waves - out of 5 - in the 4-hour chart below. Consequently:
  • you may want to take a quick short to 1.33 or lower
  • you may want to wait for the completion of wave 5 down and then take a long position to get the retracement up.
  • you may wait for the retracement up to be completed and then short EURUSD again .


The 1-hour chart below shows 4 litlle waves (out of 5). The fifth will be up. Just wait for the fifth wave to be completed before taking a short position. You'll see a reversal candlestick at the top of this new little ripple 5.

There are also three oscillators below:
  • the "wave" oscillator, similar to the Bollinger bands (but it's not). This is going to give you the earliest entry signal. Check this oscillator near the last candle in the 1-Hour chart below.

  • It shows the red lines still running inside and the grey lines still running outside. This is an indication that the downtrend is still on. Again, just wait for the fifth ripple to be completed before taking any short position.

  • EXIT SIGNAL. This oscillator will alert you that you reached the bottom of the big wave in 1-hour chart when the two lower lines (both the lower-red and the lower-grey) perform a sharp angle up. 

  • Note: DON'T enter any new long trade till all four lines swap position (the grey lines getting inside and the red lines moving outside)

  • Also, enter the new long trade ONLY when both grey lines narrow down.
  • The "awesome oscillator" provides a slower but sometimes safer signal.  Just wait for it to get to zero line before getting any position.

  • Finally the "Stochastic Oscillator": Entry only if the the stochastic of the 1-hour chart (or 15min-chart) shows a divergence, never before.

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