Tuesday 7 May 2013

EURUSD, time's running out

Hi Traders,

As in the weekly chart below, the Euro - now at 1.3078-79 - is moving  quite precisely with a cycle of top and lows every 34-36 weeks. Although the next 34 weeks cycle will come to an end next week, the Euro seems on the way down already.

Trading sessions in the 1-hour chart showed traders taking both sides quite equally in the previous 3 days and this might be a clue of the market shifting from bullish to bearish.

Moreover, the top at 1.32431 didn't go much further then previous top at 1.32011 forming a sort of double top.

However, a short rally to $1.3094-1.31 might still occur before starting the new  downtrend.










ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 downward to 1.2039 followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).

If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.











Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.



Here are the targets as in the daily chart above

Likely: the area between 1.2990 and 1.2966
Possible: 1.298
Maybe: the area between 1.2779 and 1.2748











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