Thursday 9 October 2014

AUDUSD back to 0.90?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8867) has made a double bottom around 0.8660 and seems to be heading to 0.90.

The monthly and weekly chart display the double bottom and the support at 0.8660. The daily chart shows all the possible Fibonacci targets (blue horizontal lines).


T1: 0.8923-0.8935
T2: 0.8975
T3: 0.8997-0.9000
T4: 0.9068-0.9073
T5: 0.9109-0.9119


To understand the situation of the Elliott Waves we need to see the weekly chart. According to Ralph Elliott, every MAJOR WAVE 4 always ends within the territory of another WAVE 4 of a MINOR DEGREE (in the blue quadrant). In this case, the target was in the area 0.9405-0.8066.

The AUDUSD bottomed right in the middle at 0.86419. It has deployed 5 waves - daily chart -  and the last one was made of 5 waves itself - 4-hour chart.

A question arises: is this really the bottom of major wave 4? I wouldn't be so sure. Let's say that the last sharp drop in the weekly chart looks very much like an unfinished job. After this new uptrend, the Aussie might still display its  potential to drop to 0.83 and maybe much lower.


If this new uptrend occurs in 3 waves only (daily chart) - possibly below 0.91800 - this could be a sign that it is a just a temporary retracement.

Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

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