Gold topping soon?

Hi Traders,

In July I do 1-2-1 sessions either online (GoToMeeting) or locally (in Sydney CBD).

Anyone who wants to upgrade to a professional level should act now.

For more information about the sessions CLICK HERE. To contact me CLICK HERE.

GOLD - ANALYSIS

As I said in my last newsletter about Gold (now at 1326.83), after the CBCA agreement in May, the message from the 20 major banks is very clear: European gold sales are over.

I also said that this is supposed to happen only around September 2014 when the fourth GBCA is going to be enforced.

Meanwhile, Gold should move up the area 1336-48 and then reverse down to the area 1164-54 (or lower) in 5 smaller waves to establish a primary low.

Equal probability for the other targets further down at 1089 and around the area at 1043-1032.

After all of this, it should resume the major trend up.


ELLIOTT WAVES

Note that I came up with a better wave configuration in the weekly chart. However, this didn't change targets and perspectives. Gold must complete the last wave down before resuming the major uptrend.

See the 4-hour chart: wave 1 down is completed. Wave 2 up is almost completed. The green horizontal lines in the daily chart represent the immediate targets of wave 2. After reaching the target, wave 3 should unfold downwards. 



TARGETS:
first to 1346-1348
then
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)





Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL TO 122 ?

Hi Traders,

In June I do 1-2-1 sessions either online (GoToMeeting) or locally (in Sydney CBD). Anyone who wants to upgrade to a professional level should act now. Please click here to contact me.


ANALYSIS
WTI OIL (now at 107.34) is displaying the predicted breakout and it's heading to 110.86-111 and 114.80.


TARGETS

likely: 110.86-111.00
possibly: 114.80
maybe: 121.58-122.00

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that the OIL has completed waves 1-2 and it's unfolding wave 3 right now.

In the weekly chart,  shows that major wave 5 (in blue, not displayed) has room and strenght to get to $147.5 and above.

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

DOUBLE SEMINAR IN NEWCASTLE

Hi Traders,

I'm running a double seminar in Newcastle for the ATAA on Saturday June 14, 2014. See the details below.

DOUBLE SEMINAR

WHAT: 2 seminars + networking + tea, coffee & biscuits

ORGANISER: Australian Technical Analysts Association (ATAA)

WHERE: Kahibah Bowling Club, 63 Kenibea Av, Kahibah, NSW (Newcastle)

WHEN: Saturday June 14, 2014

WHAT TIME: 9.30am - tea, coffee & biscuits - to start at 10.15am till 3.00pm

NOTE: Access is available from 9.00am.

PRICE:

• $30 (for non members of the ATAA)

• FREE for ATAA members

NOTE:

• lunch is NOT included in the entry price

DISCLAIMER:

• due to contingencies seminars might subject to last minute changes 

AGENDA:

• 9:30am: Coffee & chit-chat

• 10:15am: Welcome and Announcements - Dennis O’Flynn

• 10:20am - 10.45am - BRIEF WORKSHOP

Subject: Designing a $100K Portfolio by Ron Bowden & Peter McMahon

10:45am - 11.00am: BRIEF MARKET UPDATE

Subject: Where R We Now (World Indices) by Dennis O’Flynn

11:00am  - 11.30am: Coffee and Networking

11.30am - 1.00pm: SEMINAR 1, by Mario D. conti

Subject: The Wave Oscillator

1:00pm - 1.45pm: Lunch in Club Restaurant (optional)

1.45pm - 3.00pm: SEMINAR 2, by Mario D. Conti

Subject: Evolution of Automated Trading Systems

3:00pm: Meeting concludes

SEMINAR 1:

The Wave Oscillator

Can you really trust your favourite oscillator? Can you use it without any knowledge of Technical Analysis? 

Does it display stops and a trailing stops for each trade?Most of the existing oscillators are far too erratic and liable to a personal interpretation. 

However, this doesn't seem to apply to the Wave Oscillator created by Mario D. Conti in 2008. 

This seminar is about a new indicator capable of:

• displaying your Entry/Exit points

• displaying a stop and a trailing stop for each en-try

• keeping you out" when the trading conditions are not ideal

• easy to use without too much knowledge of technical analysis.

SEMINAR 2:

Evolution of Automated trading Systems

A new Investment Revolution is in the making and it's comparable to the one that occurred with mobile phones in the past 20 years. 

We are now living through the age of Automated Trading Systems, where the investment risk can be reasonably contained and the Annual Return on Investment (ROI) is higher than ever. 

• But what do we know about the history of Algorithmic Trading?

• What is happening right now in USA due to the High Frequency Trading Systems?

• What is good and bad with Flash Trading?

• And what do we know about the new Multi-System Portfolios?

Mario D. Conti

Mario D. Conti, Ba in Econ. & Biz., RG 146, ADA1, is a certified (non CFTe) Technical Analyst since 1989. 

With a past in Merrill Lynch and Indosuez Bank in Switzerland, he specialises in Wealth Management through Automated Trading Systems, Market Analysis and Trading Education and runs periodical seminars and webinars. 

Mario is the founder of 9 Trading Clubs in Australia with over 1000 members (see www.SydneyTraders.com.au) and recently started MDC Trading Systems (www.MDCTradingSystems.com). 

He is also an ATAA board Director from Sydney, has a strong presence on social media and contributes with regular press releases to the Australian Media. 

Finally, he is the editor of a periodical Elliott Waves newsletter published on FX Tutors

Further information about ATAA Newcastle: Stephen Blacktop - 0410 413 972

Next meeting: Saturday, 12th July

Next Speaker: To be advised.

WTI OIL new uptrend soon?

Hi Traders,

In June I do 1-2-1 sessions either online (GoToMeeting) or locally (in Sydney CBD). Anyone who wants to upgrade to a professional level should act now. Please click here to contact me.


ANALYSIS

WTI OIL has completed all the 3 legs of the triangle - see the daily chart below and it's ready to break out the upper line to 106-107 and much higher.

TARGETS

likely: 105.92-106.12
possibly: 107.24-107.34
maybe: 107.96-108.12

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart doesn't show the completion of wave 2 (in blue) yet. The a-b-c  is been followed by wave 1.-2-3. In the weekly chart,  this is part of the last wave up (wave 5) that should take the WTI OIL to 114.80 and maybe higher.

WAVE OSCILLATOR

Note  that the wave oscillator doesn't give it a go yet.



Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

GBPUSD end of the line

Hi Traders,

I'm in Sydney in June and I do 1-2-1 sessions either online (GoToMeeting) or locally (in Sydney CBD).

Anyone who wants to upgrade to a professional level should act now. Please click here to contact me.


ANALYSIS

Unless the pound (now at 1.6743) makes another attempt to reach my original target at 1.7036 (see monthly chart) this is the end of the line and we are heading to 1.60.

TARGETS

likely: 1.6378 - 1.63048
possibly: 1.6029 - 1.5982
maybe: 1.5765 - 1.5709

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows a complete set of 5 waves. Hence, unless there's going to be a double extension (it's always possible with the Pound) the way is down.






Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

GOLD and the CBGA 4

The New Central Bank Gold Agreement - CBGA 4

On May 19, 2014 the European Central Bank announced a new Central Bank Gold Agreement - CBGA - amongst 20 European countries.

Why is this catching the attention of the investors in Australia?

PREVIOUS CBGAs

The first CBGA was signed in 1999, limiting the amount of Gold that signatories can collectively sell in any one year to 400-500 tons. There have since been two further agreements, in 2004 and 2009.

THE NEW CBGA 4 

The new agreements are important to the Gold Market for 3 reasons:


1) First, they mark an ongoing commitment by some of the world largest holders of gold to coordination and transparency in the gold market. 

Back in the late 1990s, uncoordinated gold sales by European Central Banks had a significant destabilizing impact on the Gold market.

2) Secondly, they clearly restate the importance of Gold as a reserve asset in Europe.

3) Thirdly, they provide solace to gold producing countries - including Australia - that uncoordinated gold sales by some of the world largest holders would not undermine their economic development.

DIFFERENCES

An important difference between these agreements and the previous ones is that CBGA 4 contains no quantitative ceiling. 

CBGA 1, 2 & 3 each contains an annual cap on the amount of gold that can be sold collectively of between 400-500 tons per year.

The lack of a quantitative ceiling this time around reflects the fact that there is no longer any appetite for gold sales.

Having sold this substantial amount of gold under CBGA 1 & 2 and a smaller amount under CBGA 3 European central banks are clearly now comfortable with the level of gold in their reserves.

For the foreseeable future the message is very clear: European gold sales are over.


CBGA REPERCUSSIONS ON THE MARKET


In 1999, as the first agreement was supposed to be enforced on Sept 26,  Gold roared to USD 320 from 252.7 (+26.67%), displaying two huge gaps in early September.

After six months of very high volatility the yellow metal was subsequently hammered back to the lowest low, forming a triple bottom. 

Hence, what it's supposed to happen on September 27, 2014 when the fourth GBCA is going to be enforced? Let's see the weekly & daily charts.




weekly chart - click to enlarge

Conventional Technical Analysis would trust the double bottom in the weekly chart above but it doesn't give you a reasonable timeframe for this to occur.

The Elliott Waves are a bit more helpful by revealing that the wave count  requires one more leg down (wave 5) in the weekly chart  before starting a new uptrend. This should take few months and September is far away.

If the latter is true, Gold should move a bit further down to the area 1174-54 (or lower) in 5 smaller waves to establish a primary low. Afterwards, it might resume the trend up.

Equal probability for the targets further down to 1089 and to the area 1043-1032.

TARGETS:

likely: 1174-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)

NOTE:

- The 7-8 doji candles which made the apex of the symmetric triangle in the daily chart below denotes a very low trading volume due to public holidays in the US market (Memorial Day)

- Besides, Gold is quoting now at 1293, which is the perfect centre balance of the triangle. See the 4-hour chart below. 




Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge