SPI 200 major reverse

Hi Traders,

First some apologies for not writing for a month but I now work for Vantage FX in Sydney and there's little time for other activities.

BTW, you are very welcome to call me at +61 2 8999 2046 - 4pm to 11pm - or  through Skype (mariodconti).

The SPI 200

After hitting level 6009 (as predicted last year) the SPI 200 started reversing down and it's now close to the first low in the area 5540-5521.

After this low, it's supposed to bounce back up to 4685-5697 but only to follow with a new downtrend to 5459-5475 or even 5334-5320.

NOTE: If this wave count is correct, this major reversal could get much lower then 5000 over the medium run.

  

TARGETS

• down to 5540-5521
• up to 4685-5697
• down to 5459-5475 or 5334-5320

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the 3 waves we were expecting (in blue, font 12) are fully shaped. This three waves are part of the major wave 2 (in red, font 14) that topped at 6009.

Theoretically this is it, and, unless the last minute surprise, we don't expect any wave 4 and 5 up. Basically, it's a major reversal.

The 4-hour chart shows that we have started wave 3 down but we have only completed 3 waves out of 5. Hence, expect the SPI 200 to bounce back to form wave 4 up.




  

 monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hou chart - click to enlarge

USDSGD, starting the last rally

Hi Traders, 

The USDSGD reached the predicted target area - between the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart - and started the last rally that should take it up to the area 1.4002-1.4205 (see monthly chart)

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart and in the weekly chart to visually identify the new target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 1.3993
possibly: 1.4048 - 1.4103
maybe: 1.4223
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

 The daily and the 4-hour charts display clearly that the wave 4 is fully formed. It should be followed by a rally named wave 5 that should take the USDSGD to the targets above indicated.

 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge

 

 

 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

AUDUSD , still moving down

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD reached the area I suggested since early 2014 at 0.7590-0.7528 - see green horizontal lines in the monthly chart - and I  honestly thought that the ultimate low was going to be around 0.7501.

However the wave count in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts suggests that the downtrend may not be over yet.

Hence, in case there's a breakout of the support at 0.7501 - with or without some help from the RBA next week - the AUDUSD might finally sink to the next target at 0.7277-0.7241. 

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart to visually identify the target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7424-0.7386
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of major wave 4. See the NOTE below.

The 1-hour chart reveals that we still have some little way down to complete wave 5 (in green).

The 1-hour chart further clarifies that this wave 5 is still at the beginning, having completed only sub-waves 1, 2 and maybe 3 (in green) out of 5.

Hence, once the small wave 3 is fully formed, the AUDUSD should bounce back to level 0.76 to form a very small wave 4 in the 1-hour chart.

In turn, the latter will be followed by the small wave 5 to 0.75001 or down to 0.7277-0.7241.

NOTE: Once the entire set of five waves occurred in each time frame, this will automatically enforce the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule).

This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs (Time Turning Points).



FIBONACCI

If major wave 4 ends in the area 0.7277-0.7241, it will match 100% the length of major wave 2 - see the monthly chart.

Furthermore, that area also marks a Fibonacci "Confluence" (K) where two major Fibo Nodes (61.8% and 76.4%) coincide. See the monthly chart.



 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge

 

 

 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

Easter Holidays and Apologies

Hi Traders,

Apologies for not publishing new analysis lately but I'll be utterly busy approximately till April 12.

However, feel free to call me for a quick chat through Skype at "mariodconti".
Just bear in mind that I'm usually in my office 4pm-11.30pm, Sydney Time (Australia).

In meantime, Happy Easter Holidays.

Mario D Conti

GOLD, Major Low and Reverse

Hi Traders, 

 GOLD (now at 1146) is almost ready to bottom down and reverse, probably around 1089 or the area 1043-1.032.

Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally should follow soon. Not to be missed.  Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

 
TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 1089
possibly: 1043 - 1032

Then up:

likely: 1307-1320
possibly: 1380-1386

 
 
ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of a major wave.  The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that this could happens within a week.






weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

 daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

GBPUSD Major Turning Point

Hi Traders, 

The GBPUSD (now at 1.4774) seems to be almost ready to bottom down around 1.46-1.45 and reverse. Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally will follow soon. Not to be missed.

Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 1.4665
possibly: 1.4602 - 1.4556
maybe: 1.4583-1.4538

Then up:

likely: 1.5174-1.5156
possibly: 0.5320-1.5466

 
 
ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of a major wave. At this stage, it is not clear which Elliott pattern this wave belongs to. What it's clear is that we are close to a turning point and there will be a retracement as a minimum.

The daily chart shows that we are performing wave 5 and the 4-hour and 1-hour charts shows that this could happens within a week.




monthly chart - click to enlarge

 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

 daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

 

AUDUSD, Major Turning Point

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD is scratching the barrel and is soon to reach a major bottom. Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally will follow soon. Not to be missed.

Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7433
maybe: 0.7357

Then up:

likely: 0.7796
possibly: 0.8001-0.8069
maybe: 0.85080-0.8569



ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are performing the bottom of major wave 4 (or maybe the first of the 3 major waves that will be part of it).

The daily chart shows that we are performing wave 5 and the 4-hour and 1-hour charts shows that this could happens within a week.

NOTE: This the completion of the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule). This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs.



monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD debacle

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.085) is in the target area (1.0917-1.0759) - see bottom-right, wave "e" in the monthly chart. Hence, it might rebound to 1.0970 (see 1-hour chart) before resuming the downtrend to the area 1.0419-1.0365.

TARGETS

First up to

likely: 1.0970
possibly: 1.0986-1.0988
maybe: 1.1113

then down

possibly: 1.0419-1.0365.
maybe: 1.0206-1.0104

ELLIOTT WAVES

It's hard to count waves when the movement is so sharp and the waves are not properly well defined. However, the daily chart shows that the Euro should  move further down in nine waves.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

WTI OIL: time to buy back

Hi Traders,

Time to long the WTI OIL (now at $49.27) as it's supposed to rally to the area $60-62. The present price seems to be a good entry point.



TARGETS

likely: area 58.25-59.49
possibly: area 61.69-62.63
maybe: 63.67

The blue lines in each chart represent possible targets



ELLIOTT WAVES

The OIL completed wave 3 in the weekly chart and started "retracement wave 4".

Waves 1 & 2 in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are just the beginning of the bigger "retracement wave 4" of the weekly chart.




weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD back to 0.80-82?

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar (now at 0.7860) is set to bounce back to 0.8036-0.8067 and higher.


TARGETS

likely: 0.8036-0.8067
possibly: 0.8168 - 0.8156
maybe: 0.8229-0.8260 

The new targets are marked with blue horizontal lines in  the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the 4-hour and the 1-hour charts that show the Elliott wave count that shows the unfolding of a typical wave 4 of the daily chart.




monthly chart, click to enlarge

weekly chart, click to enlarge

daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge