USDGBP uptrend

Hi Traders,

It's not a mystery that the Pound is commonly named "the b...ch" by traders. It can be really tricky, you wouldn't disagree.

I have to confess that I was abit too complacent last night and I was stopped out.

But I am sort-of-excused as I witnessed too many irregular formations on the Pound in the last 5 years in terms of:

• unusually complex retracement formations
• unusual high number of double-triple tops and bottoms
• uncommon number of broadening formations

In practice the GBPUSD gave me quite a hard time but, in positive terms, I think that this is part of my never-ending learning curve.

ANALYSIS

Although the GBPUSD (now at 1.6616) is heading to 1.6763-1.6820 and maybe 1.7045-1.7186, it might stage a limited retracement very soon.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.6763-1.6820
possibly: 1.6880
maybe: area 1.7045-1.7186

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that this is the last wave up (wave 5). The daily chart shows that this is the 5th of the 5th. Hence: watch carefully the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart to spot the end of the trend.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USD, strong again

Hi Traders,

As it often occurred in the past, I disagree with many traders. I believe that whatever the FED is going to say, the US$ is going strength. Meaning: the weakness of the USD is over and it's going to start a new rally.

Hence, here some of my findings

COMMODITIES

GOLD, now at 1284, should top around 1290-1300  and resume the downtrend
WTI OIL, now at 100.31, should top around 100.71 and resume the downtrend

MAJOR CURRENCIES

AUDUSD, now at 0.9025, should top around 0.9036 and resume the downtrend
EURUSD, now at 1.3667, should top around  1.3698-13700 and resume the downtrend
USDCHF, now at 0.8955, should resume the uptrend to 1.078 and over

INDICES

S&P500, now at 1802.75, should top around 1810 and resume the downtrend
DAX30, now at 9411.25, should top around 9,900-10,000 and resume the downtrend
FT100, now at 6605, should resume the downtrend straight away
SPI200, now at 5211, should resume the downtrend straight away

ps: apologies, no display of charts this time

Cheeers
Mario D. Conti

GBPUSD ready to reverse

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD stopped and reversed at 1.6668, a good "figure" short of my target at 1.6763-1.6810.

Although there's still a some potential for the very last jump up to the target at 1.6763-1.6810, that would be the Swan Song.

With or without jump, it's almost ready for a downtrend to the area 1.6127-1.6036 although the Wave Oscillator keeps warning to wait for a safe entry cross of the red lines.

TARGETS

first to 1.6763-1.6810 (maybe)

then

likely: 1.6127-1.6036
possibly: 1.6029-1.5963
maybe: 1.5859-1.5831


ENTRY

Entry only when the red lines of the wave oscillator cross. This is not happening in daily chart nor in the 4-hour chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES

Check the monthly chart. Theoretically the Pound is heading down to the area 1.60-1.58 and then back up to 1.70.

The weekly chart displays the target areas in green (calculated with the Fibonacci Queen Method) and blue (for simple Fibonacci calculations)

The daily chart shows the completion of 5 waves up. Note also the last 3 "doji" candles signalling weakness.

The 4-hour chart displays 5 complete waves up as well.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY, last dive before the last rally

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 102.76 ) might soon take the last dive to the area 101.76-101.51 before starting the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.

TARGETS 

first: down to 101.76-101.51

then up to

likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011. 4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet. 

The daily chart shows 4 intermediate waves although minor wave 4 won't be completed unless it reaches the area 101.76-101.51 (4-hour chart).

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GBPUSD reversal

Hi  Traders

The GBPUSD  - now at 1.6500 - missed the target for a whisker and reversed. It's now heading towards 1.6020.

TARGETS:

likely: 1.6383
possible: 1.62 - 1.6130
maybe 1.6020

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the completion of wave 3 up. Theoretically, the Pound should stage wave 4 down to 1.5841 and wave 5 up to the area 1.6763-1.6810.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200 heading south

Hi Traders,

The SPI200, now at 5211, is heading to 5000 and much lower. We're expecting a small rebound to 5238 when it touches the support around 5190.

Level 5238 could be a good entry point.

TARGETS

likely: 5065-5040
possibly: 4942
maybe: 4860

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the SPI200 completed waves 1,2 and 3 and it's now developing wave 4 with a zigzag or a flat lasting several months.

The operational range of this zigzag or flat should be between 5460 and 4660 or lower.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge

EURUSD, according to plan

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD, now a 1.3550, did exactly as predicted and seems to be heading to 1.30.

TARGETS

likely: 1.3470-1.3451
possibly: 1.3318-1.3290
maybe: 1.3175-1.3159

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in Magenta in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with two-step pattern (wave 2 in Magenta in the weekly chart).

Theoretically, this should be followed by 5 waves down well below 1.2970-80, if the Euro breaks this important support.


NOTE

The Euro might attempt to rally to 1.3597 before resuming the downtrend.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 1-hour chart, click to enlarge