Tuesday, 1 October 2013

USDJPY, almost there

Hi Traders,

I'm running 2 free webinars and a free seminar each month in Sydney.

October:

  • Monday 14 October - free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time)
  • Monday 28 October - free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time)
  • Thursday 31 October - free SEMINAR (7-9pm, Sydney time)
All this graciously organised by the mighty City Index.

This is an unmissable chance to get a true insight of my Elliott Wave Trading. Hence, don't miss it!

This will be followed by a 2-days-long Elliott Wave BOOTCAMP in early November! 

If you want to be part of it call Richard Vatner +61(0)2 9270 3618 and mention "MDC" (Mario D. Conti) or leave a message.

I'll come up with more details soon.

Finally, Sydney Traders will get together on Tuesday Oct 8th for a mini-seminar + a drink at the local. (check here)

...


USDJPY, almost there

USDJPY, now at 97.88, might complete the downtrend soon by reaching the final target at 97.43 and possibly the area 97.049-96.820 (4-hour chart). Then the uptrend should resume to take it to 105 and 112.

TARGETS

likely: 97.43
possibly: area 97.049-96.820
then uptrend


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays a nice a-b-c followed by waves 1. Wave 2 (downwards) might finish soon.

NOTE

The present downtrend might stop at 97.66 or even 97.48 (1-hour chart). In doing so it would stage a double bottom and start the uptrend much earlier. Hence check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking any position.






monthly chart - click to enlarge 







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge





AUDUSD, keeps going

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD, now on the resistance at 0.9333 started a rally that should take it to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly to 0.9691-0.9716.


TARGETS

likely: area 0.9511-0.9529
possibly: area 0.9691-0.9716
maybe: area 0.9915-0.9962

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly & weekly chart display an a-b-c-d-e which should be followed by a new rally with a two-step pattern.

The 1-hour chart displays the 5 ways down followed by a double bottom, indication of possible jump.


ENTRY POINT

Check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking your position. The 2 black lines must get together or cross. That would be your entry signal. Meaning: there might be a little retracement, so don't get in straight away.



monthly chart - click to enlarge










weekly chart - click to enlarge










daily chart - click to enlarge










wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge










4-hour chart - click to enlarge










wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge










1-hour chart - click to enlarge









wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 16 September 2013

Gold good entry

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1327.70) has completed an a-b-c-d-e on the weekly chart and another a-b-c-d-e on the 4-hour chart.  The commodity is heading towards  the area 1488 and 1560.

TARGETS

likely: area 1370-1374.
possibly: 1414
maybe: 1488 and 1560


NOTE:

If Gold reverses around the resistance at 1488, the whole configuration of Elliott Waves might need to be re-assessed.


ELLIOTT WAVES

If this analysis is correct we just witnessed the end of the retracement wave 2 (in the daily chart) which stopped right on the 50% of wave 1.

The subsequent "wave 3" should attain 1488-1560



weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge





wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Overall Picture

Hi Traders

Below a comparison of 3 indices, 2 commodities and 3 currencies. Apologies for the amendments to yesterday's analysis but I needed to be more precise.

INDICES

The FT100 (below) is sometimes the index that "displays earlier" than the SPI200. The weekly chart shows a pattern of 4 waves out of 5.

If 
this is not a simple wave 4 but the start of a wider retracement,
the incoming top should end below the resistance at 6862 and then drop well below 6000 in 3-5 waves (a-b-c- or a-b-c-d-e).

Conversely, if it breaks the resistance at 6862 it should reach level 7,000.


FT100 weekly



FT100 daily




The S&P500 (below) hasn't made any absolute top yet. It actually performed only 3 waves out of 5 (weekly chart).

It is now unfolding the "retracement wave  4" (an a-b-c-d-e) that should go through the lower line of the channel (in both weekly & daily charts).

If this analysis is correct, the last wave of this a-b-c-d-e (wave e) might cut deeply through the lower line of the channel.



S&P500 weekly



S&P500 daily




The SPI200 (below), now touching a main resistance, started retracement wave 4 where wave "b" is almost completed.

After this top ("b"), wave 4 will form an a-b-c heading to 4900, 4700 and maybe 4560-4550.

SPI200 weekly



SPI200 daily



COMMODITIES


The WTI OIL displays an uptrend of 3 waves up (out of 5) and it's now sitting  on the resistance at 110.31.

If this is the top of wave 3 there will be an a-b-c correction or even an a-b-c-d-e to the areas 100.86-100.41 and 98.29-97.35.  


WTI OIL weekly



WTI OIL daily




Gold displays 5 waves downwards followed by a rally (wave 1). If this is true, it should retrace to 1306 to complete wave 2. This should be followed by a rally to 1447-1462 as a minimum.


Gold weekly



Gold daily





CURRENCIES



The USDJPY is really interesting: after the breakout upwards and the subsequent retracement (not finished), it seems to be ready for level 105.3 and higher.


USDJPY weekly



USDJPY daily




The USDSGD (below) made a double top and it's now heading to 1.25. Then the situation will need to be re-assessed as the uptrend should resume.


USDSGD weekly



USDSGD daily




The AUDUSD (below) is in full upswing. It's now heading to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly 0.9691-0.9716.


AUDUSD weekly



AUDUSD daily

Thursday, 5 September 2013

AUDUSD double top

Hi Traders,

Double top on the 1-hour chart that should take the AUDUSD (now at 0.9155) to 0.9090 and possibly lower. However, this is largely expected as the Aussie completed the first set of 5 waves up (of a very minor grade) and we are witnessing only a temporary pullback (wave 2 of a very minor grade).

TARGETS

likely: 0.9090
possibly: area 0.9073-0.9058 and area 0.9047-0.9039
maybe: around 0.90034

NOTE

Below, I published only the 4-hour and 1-hour charts. For more info please refer to my previous post about AUDUSD as that analysis is still current.




4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge



USDJPY new trend

Hi Traders,

USDJPY, now at 99.63,  finally broke the upper line of the triangle displayed in the daily chart and started the new uptrend which should take it to 105 and 122.

TARGETS

likely: 105.31
possibly: 120. 17
maybe: 122.30


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays a nice a-b-c followed by waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 (upwards) just started.

ENTRY

The wave oscillator shows an imminent pullback in the 1-hour chart. Wait for that before getting in.



monthly chart - click to enlarge 







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge