Saturday, 12 October 2013

GOLD, perfect entry

Hi Traders,

Before getting into the analysis of GOLD let's check some news.

I'm running some free webinars and free seminars (see below). To register click the links below.

OCTOBER CALENDAR
  • Monday 28 October - Free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time). I don't have the link to this webinar yet. 
All this powerfully organised & hosted by the mighty City Index in Sydney.

MOST IMPORTANTLY
  • Monday Nov 11 and Tuesday Nov 12: ELLIOTT WAVE BOOTCAMP, (16 hours) in a venue to be confirmed soon.
At this BOOTCAMP you will be taken on a journey through the identification and practical use of Elliott Waves.

You will be able to:


  • recognise & label each wave properly
  • predict the direction of new trends
  • correctly identify the starting point of new trends
  • determine targets
  • identify Entry and Exit point in daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts.

Your approach to trading will change foreverThis is an unmissable chance to get a true insight of Elliott Wave Trading. Hence, don't miss it!


If you want to be part of it call Richard Vatner +61(0)2 9270 3618 and mention "MDC" (Mario D. Conti) or leave a message. 


...

FINALLY,

I set up a trading account where I place the trades I suggest. I'll keep you posted.


...



THE ANALYSIS: GOLD, perfect entry




Hi Traders,

GOLD did exactly what I predicted on Oct 12 and completed an a-b-c retracement. It's  now supposed to start a new uptrend. This is confirmed by the 4 red candles in the daily chart, which is usually a reliable reversing pattern.

If this analysis is correct, the commodity may get to the area 1549-1561 and beyond.   

TARGETS

likely: area 1447-1462
possible: 1488
maybe: 1549-1561 

ELLIOTT WAVES

With the low around 1261 and a close around 1271-72, GOLD performed a 66% retracement of impulse wave 1 (daily chart). This retracement is displayed in the daily chart as wave 2.

FURTHERMORE:

In the 1-hour chart Gold is supposed to make another minor attempt to touch the low at 1261 or slightly lower as it didn't performed all 5 little ripples  downwards yet (in the 1-hour chart). This could happen at the opening or few hours after the opening.

Then a new significant uptrend - labelled "wave 3" (daily chart) - should take place.

NOTE:

If a temporary rise of the "debt ceiling" is agreed by the American Congress  but its NOT followed by a definitive agreement within Nov 22, The FED might be attempted to sell some gold'to pay the debts, with devastating effects on the commodity.

BTW: so far there's no "sign" of such an event in the charts.

HENCE: manage your stops and, overall, wait for a signal of the "wave oscillator" - in the 1-hour chart - before getting in.    
    

weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Monday, 7 October 2013

GBPUSD, double top

Hi Traders,

Plenty of news this week

I'm running 2 free webinars and a free seminar each month in Sydney (see below). To register click the links below.

OCTOBER CALENDAR
  • Monday 28 October - Free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time). I don't have the link to this webinar yet. 
All this powerfully organised & hosted by the mighty City Index in Sydney.

MOST IMPORTANTLY
  • Monday Nov 11 and Tuesday Nov 12: ELLIOTT WAVE BOOTCAMP, (16 hours) in a venue to be confirmed soon.
At this bootcamp you will be taken on a journey through the identification and practical use of Elliott Waves.

You will be able to:

  • recognise & label each wave properly
  • predict the direction of new trends
  • correctly identify the starting point of new trends
  • determine targets
  • identify Entry and Exit point in daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts.

Your approach to trading will change foreverThis is an unmissable chance to get a true insight of Elliott Wave Trading. Hence, don't miss it!


If you want to be part of it call Richard Vatner +61(0)2 9270 3618 and mention "MDC" (Mario D. Conti) or leave a message. 


...

Furthermore, Sydney Traders, our trading group in Sydney,  will get together on Tuesday Oct 8th for a "MeetUp" + a drink at the Establishment Hotel in George St. (check here)


...

FINALLY,

I'm setting up a Trading account where I place the trades I suggest. I'll keep you posted.


...



THE ANALYSIS: GBPUSD, double top


GBPUSD, now at 1.6040, performed a double top in the 4-hour chart. If the pullback (up) stops in the area 1.6102-1.6162 it might start a downtrend to the area 1.5708-1.5688.

TARGETS

likely: 1.5824
possibly: area 1.5708-1.5688
maybe: 1.5552-1.5536

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays a 5 waves up. This pattern should be followed by a corrective a-b-c (downwards).

In the 1-hour chart it should retrace up to the area 1.6102-1.6162 before starting the new downtrend.


NOTE

This situation was created by the recent facts occurred in USA. If no agreement is reached in the congress (about the rise of the debt ceiling), the uptrend could resume.

Also, the present downtrend is pulling back up to 1.6101-1.6131 and maybe to 1.6162. Hence, wait for the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart to "turn into  selling mode" before taking any short position (not ready yet).




weekly chart - click to enlarge 





daily chart - click to enlarge





wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge




Tuesday, 1 October 2013

USDJPY, almost there

Hi Traders,

I'm running 2 free webinars and a free seminar each month in Sydney.

October:

  • Monday 14 October - free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time)
  • Monday 28 October - free Webinar (8-9pm, Sydney time)
  • Thursday 31 October - free SEMINAR (7-9pm, Sydney time)
All this graciously organised by the mighty City Index.

This is an unmissable chance to get a true insight of my Elliott Wave Trading. Hence, don't miss it!

This will be followed by a 2-days-long Elliott Wave BOOTCAMP in early November! 

If you want to be part of it call Richard Vatner +61(0)2 9270 3618 and mention "MDC" (Mario D. Conti) or leave a message.

I'll come up with more details soon.

Finally, Sydney Traders will get together on Tuesday Oct 8th for a mini-seminar + a drink at the local. (check here)

...


USDJPY, almost there

USDJPY, now at 97.88, might complete the downtrend soon by reaching the final target at 97.43 and possibly the area 97.049-96.820 (4-hour chart). Then the uptrend should resume to take it to 105 and 112.

TARGETS

likely: 97.43
possibly: area 97.049-96.820
then uptrend


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays a nice a-b-c followed by waves 1. Wave 2 (downwards) might finish soon.

NOTE

The present downtrend might stop at 97.66 or even 97.48 (1-hour chart). In doing so it would stage a double bottom and start the uptrend much earlier. Hence check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking any position.






monthly chart - click to enlarge 







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge





AUDUSD, keeps going

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD, now on the resistance at 0.9333 started a rally that should take it to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly to 0.9691-0.9716.


TARGETS

likely: area 0.9511-0.9529
possibly: area 0.9691-0.9716
maybe: area 0.9915-0.9962

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly & weekly chart display an a-b-c-d-e which should be followed by a new rally with a two-step pattern.

The 1-hour chart displays the 5 ways down followed by a double bottom, indication of possible jump.


ENTRY POINT

Check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking your position. The 2 black lines must get together or cross. That would be your entry signal. Meaning: there might be a little retracement, so don't get in straight away.



monthly chart - click to enlarge










weekly chart - click to enlarge










daily chart - click to enlarge










wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge










4-hour chart - click to enlarge










wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge










1-hour chart - click to enlarge









wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 16 September 2013

Gold good entry

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1327.70) has completed an a-b-c-d-e on the weekly chart and another a-b-c-d-e on the 4-hour chart.  The commodity is heading towards  the area 1488 and 1560.

TARGETS

likely: area 1370-1374.
possibly: 1414
maybe: 1488 and 1560


NOTE:

If Gold reverses around the resistance at 1488, the whole configuration of Elliott Waves might need to be re-assessed.


ELLIOTT WAVES

If this analysis is correct we just witnessed the end of the retracement wave 2 (in the daily chart) which stopped right on the 50% of wave 1.

The subsequent "wave 3" should attain 1488-1560



weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge





wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Overall Picture

Hi Traders

Below a comparison of 3 indices, 2 commodities and 3 currencies. Apologies for the amendments to yesterday's analysis but I needed to be more precise.

INDICES

The FT100 (below) is sometimes the index that "displays earlier" than the SPI200. The weekly chart shows a pattern of 4 waves out of 5.

If 
this is not a simple wave 4 but the start of a wider retracement,
the incoming top should end below the resistance at 6862 and then drop well below 6000 in 3-5 waves (a-b-c- or a-b-c-d-e).

Conversely, if it breaks the resistance at 6862 it should reach level 7,000.


FT100 weekly



FT100 daily




The S&P500 (below) hasn't made any absolute top yet. It actually performed only 3 waves out of 5 (weekly chart).

It is now unfolding the "retracement wave  4" (an a-b-c-d-e) that should go through the lower line of the channel (in both weekly & daily charts).

If this analysis is correct, the last wave of this a-b-c-d-e (wave e) might cut deeply through the lower line of the channel.



S&P500 weekly



S&P500 daily




The SPI200 (below), now touching a main resistance, started retracement wave 4 where wave "b" is almost completed.

After this top ("b"), wave 4 will form an a-b-c heading to 4900, 4700 and maybe 4560-4550.

SPI200 weekly



SPI200 daily



COMMODITIES


The WTI OIL displays an uptrend of 3 waves up (out of 5) and it's now sitting  on the resistance at 110.31.

If this is the top of wave 3 there will be an a-b-c correction or even an a-b-c-d-e to the areas 100.86-100.41 and 98.29-97.35.  


WTI OIL weekly



WTI OIL daily




Gold displays 5 waves downwards followed by a rally (wave 1). If this is true, it should retrace to 1306 to complete wave 2. This should be followed by a rally to 1447-1462 as a minimum.


Gold weekly



Gold daily





CURRENCIES



The USDJPY is really interesting: after the breakout upwards and the subsequent retracement (not finished), it seems to be ready for level 105.3 and higher.


USDJPY weekly



USDJPY daily




The USDSGD (below) made a double top and it's now heading to 1.25. Then the situation will need to be re-assessed as the uptrend should resume.


USDSGD weekly



USDSGD daily




The AUDUSD (below) is in full upswing. It's now heading to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly 0.9691-0.9716.


AUDUSD weekly



AUDUSD daily