The Yuan reversal

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.80) has topped at 6.9874 and it's now reversing to 6.65. The Yuan depreciated considerably (from 6.0153 to 6.9874) in the last 24 months . 

MAJOR SUPPORTS & TARGETS

1) 6.6488
3) 6.5634
5) 6.5444

ELLIOTT WAVES

Given that the historical chart below doesn't allow any Elliott wave recognition, I'm forced to consider two quite opposite scenarios.

However, in both cases the USDCNH short term target is down to 6.56 Yuan per USD.

1) If the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is part of a 5 wave pattern, the USDCNH is now performing the retracement wave 4  down to 6.56, followed by a new uptrend to 9 USDCNH and over.

2) Instead, if the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is just a typical 3 waves retracement, the uptrend is over. In this case the USDCNH is just resuming the major downtrend - started in January 1994 at 8.72 - to move well below 6.56.

Below the historical chart as well as the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts





Historical chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

4-hour chart - Click to enlarge

Watch out for this Major Time Turning Point

Hi Traders,

Gann numbers seem to be pointing to a very close TTP (time turning point) around December 19 plus/minus 1 trading day.

If this occurs, the US Dollar might temporarily top-and-reverse with major repercussions over the whole spectrum of currencies and commodities.

NOTE: volatility could be wilder across the commodities then with the currencies.

SOME POSSIBLE PIVOT POINTS

GOLD (now at 1131): reversal in the area 1114-1129, TARGET: around 1476 or the area 1526-1532.

WTI OIL (now at 51.17): reversal in the area 49.70-49.87, TARGET: area 61.49-63.58.

EURUSD (now at 1.0438): reversal in the area 1.028-1.036, TARGET: 1.138.

AUDUSD (now at 0.7358): reversal around 0.7330, TARGET: 0.7468.

USDSGD (now at 1.4413): reversal in the area 1.4685-1.4725, TARGET: around 1.41 and also 1.37.

USDJPY: (now at 118.09): reversal in the area 118.8-120.3, TARGET: 110.72-111.89.

YUAN DEPRECIATION TO STOP SOON?

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.7780) should top soon as it is close to completing all wave patterns started in January 2014.

TARGETS & ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that we are close to the completion of primary and secondary waves to the top. This is also confirmed by the wave count of the minor waves in the daily and 4-hour charts.

Unless a wave extension occurs, the Yuan should top around 6.87-7.00. The subsequent retracement should bring it slowly down to the area 6.44.

Note: I cannot be more precise about the targets as there isn't much history about the Chinese currency.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

GOLD TILL YEAR END

 Hi Traders,

Gold (now at $1265.14) could rally up to $1278-81 or $1301-04 but only to resume the retracement down to the area $1191-1208 (being $1210.62 the theoretical value). That support would mark the beginning of the new $300 uptrend to $1521-31.

TARGETS & ELLIOT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that Gold is still performing wave 2 down (the retracement) to $1208-1191. Besides, the area $1142-31 cannot be ruled out from the likely targets.

The weekly and daily charts reveal all the targets:  $1278-81, $1301-04, $1131-42 as well the final targets at $1521-31

The 4-hour chart shows more in detail that wave 8 is still unfolding, given the targets at $1278-81 and $1301-04.

Finally the 1-hour chart is even more explicit in revealing an hourly target at $1156-52 before the rally to $1278-81 and $1301-04, 


Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

WHERE IS GOLD NOW AND WHERE IS GOING TO GO?

Hi Traders,

I get almost daily inquiries about Gold. Where is going to top & reverse? Will Gold be affected by the FED interest hike? Here's what I found.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The interpretation of the monthly, weekly and daily charts below is crucial to understand the future dynamics of Gold (now at $1314.74). 

The monthly chart shows that the Gold 5 years correction ended at $1046 (i). Then, a major rally started. This chart also displays two targets: $1435 and $1532.

The weekly chart reveals that the new uptrend - intiated at 555c - needs another thrust up to complete wave 3, possibly to $1432-40.

Note: the daily chart shows that Gold (although a brief jump to the area $1324-7 is still possible) might bottom around $1283-86 before starting the new rally to $1432-40.

BTW, that top at $1432-40 could coincide with the FED interest hike. After topping at this level, wave 3 would be followed by another correction (wave 4) to $1312-21, although $1252 is the theoretical target. This correction could last quite a few months.

Finally, wave 5 should take Gold up to $1522-32 or higher.

(i) I predicted this low to be in the area 1043-1032 two years ago!

Monthly chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily chart - Click to enlarge