OIL: what's next

Hi Traders,

Although it's briefly retracing to $49, the WTI OIL (now at $47.71) seems to be  heading towards the area $40.6-$37.6.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart show that the WTI OIL completed 5 waves up and started a retracement down to the area $40.6-$37.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci confluence (K) around $45.38-$45.67 where the WTI OIL could complete the first set of 5 small waves down (from point 2 on the right hand side of the daily chart). Besides,  $43 and $38.85 seem to be important supports.

Finally, the 4-hour chart displays the target area at $47.06-$46.96 that I previously set sometimes ago (it went down to $46.72) and also the new possible target at $49.21.



Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

The Yuan reversal

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.80) has topped at 6.9874 and it's now reversing to 6.65. The Yuan depreciated considerably (from 6.0153 to 6.9874) in the last 24 months . 

MAJOR SUPPORTS & TARGETS

1) 6.6488
3) 6.5634
5) 6.5444

ELLIOTT WAVES

Given that the historical chart below doesn't allow any Elliott wave recognition, I'm forced to consider two quite opposite scenarios.

However, in both cases the USDCNH short term target is down to 6.56 Yuan per USD.

1) If the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is part of a 5 wave pattern, the USDCNH is now performing the retracement wave 4  down to 6.56, followed by a new uptrend to 9 USDCNH and over.

2) Instead, if the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is just a typical 3 waves retracement, the uptrend is over. In this case the USDCNH is just resuming the major downtrend - started in January 1994 at 8.72 - to move well below 6.56.

Below the historical chart as well as the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts





Historical chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

4-hour chart - Click to enlarge