Monday, 5 June 2017

Canadian: What's Next

Hi Traders,

The USDCAD (now at 1.34884) seems to be heading to the support at 1.322. Possible long term target the area 1.283-1.267 and also around 1.213


The historical chart display the completion of the major a-b-c retracement in c 2, (53c2, top right in the monthly chart)

The monthly chart shows the same huge a-b-c from 0.905 to 1.469. Then, in the weekly chart, the new trend started with wave 1 and wave 2, the latter being the typical continuation pattern.

The daily chart shows the same continuation pattern in its entirety (a-b-c in blue) and the targets at the area 1.329-1.328 and around 1.322.

The 4-hour chart displays 4 waves down, out of 5 (in magenta). The 5th is on its way. Note also the support at 1.3454.

Historical chart. Click to enlarge

Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

Sunday, 4 June 2017

OIL: what's next

Hi Traders,

Although it's briefly retracing to $49, the WTI OIL (now at $47.71) seems to be  heading towards the area $40.6-$37.6.


The weekly chart show that the WTI OIL completed 5 waves up and started a retracement down to the area $40.6-$37.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci confluence (K) around $45.38-$45.67 where the WTI OIL could complete the first set of 5 small waves down (from point on the right hand side of the daily chart). Besides,  $43 and $38.85 seem to be important supports.

Finally, the 4-hour chart displays the target area at $47.06-$46.96 that I previously set sometimes ago (it went down to $46.72) and also the new possible target at $49.21.

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

The Yuan reversal

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.80) has topped at 6.9874 and it's now reversing to 6.65. The Yuan depreciated considerably (from 6.0153 to 6.9874) in the last 24 months 


1) 6.6488
3) 6.5634
5) 6.5444


Given that the historical chart below doesn't allow any Elliott wave recognition, I'm forced to consider two quite opposite scenarios.

However, in both cases the USDCNH short term target is down to 6.56 Yuan per USD.

1) If the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is part of a 5 wave pattern, the USDCNH is now performing the retracement wave 4  down to 6.56, followed by a new uptrend to 9 USDCNH and over.

2) Instead, if the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is just a typical 3 waves retracement, the uptrend is over. In this case the USDCNH is just resuming the major downtrend - started in January 1994 at 8.72 - to move well below 6.56.

Below the historical chart as well as the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts

Historical chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

4-hour chart - Click to enlarge

Friday, 16 December 2016

Watch out for this Major Time Turning Point

Hi Traders,

Gann numbers seem to be pointing to a very close TTP (time turning pointaround December 19 plus/minus 1 trading day.

If this occurs, the US Dollar might temporarily top-and-reverse with major repercussions over the whole spectrum of currencies and commodities.

NOTE: volatility could be wilder across the commodities then with the currencies.


GOLD (now at 1131): reversal in the area 1114-1129, TARGET: around 1476 or the area 1526-1532.

WTI OIL (now at 51.17): reversal in the area 49.70-49.87, TARGET: area 61.49-63.58.

EURUSD (now at 1.0438): reversal in the area 1.028-1.036, TARGET: 1.138.

AUDUSD (now at 0.7358)reversal around 0.7330, TARGET: 0.7468.

USDSGD (now at 1.4413): reversal in the area 1.4685-1.4725, TARGET: around 1.41 and also 1.37.

USDJPY: (now at 118.09): reversal in the area 118.8-120.3, TARGET: 110.72-111.89.

Wednesday, 26 October 2016


Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.7780) should top soon as it is close to completing all wave patterns started in January 2014.


The monthly and weekly charts show that we are close to the completion of primary and secondary waves to the top. This is also confirmed by the wave count of the minor waves in the daily and 4-hour charts.

Unless a wave extension occurs, the Yuan should top around 6.87-7.00. The subsequent retracement should bring it slowly down to the area 6.44.

Note: I cannot be more precise about the targets as there isn't much history about the Chinese currency.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

Tuesday, 25 October 2016


 Hi Traders,

Gold (now at $1265.14) could rally up to $1278-81 or $1301-04 but only to resume the retracement down to the area $1191-1208 (being $1210.62 the theoretical value). That support would mark the beginning of the new $300 uptrend to $1521-31.


The monthly chart shows that Gold is still performing wave 2 down (the retracement) to $1208-1191. Besides, the area $1142-31 cannot be ruled out from the likely targets.

The weekly and daily charts reveal all the targets:  $1278-81, $1301-04, $1131-42 as well the final targets at $1521-31

The 4-hour chart shows more in detail that wave 8 is still unfolding, given the targets at $1278-81 and $1301-04.

Finally the 1-hour chart is even more explicit in revealing an hourly target at $1156-52 before the rally to $1278-81 and $1301-04, 

Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Monday, 19 September 2016


Hi Traders,

I get almost daily inquiries about Gold. Where is going to top & reverse? Will Gold be affected by the FED interest hike? Here's what I found.


The interpretation of the monthly, weekly and daily charts below is crucial to understand the future dynamics of Gold (now at $1314.74). 

The monthly chart shows that the Gold 5 years correction ended at $1046 (i). Then, a major rally started. This chart also displays two targets: $1435 and $1532.

The weekly chart reveals that the new uptrend - intiated at 555c - needs another thrust up to complete wave 3, possibly to $1432-40.

Note: the daily chart shows that Gold (although a brief jump to the area $1324-7 is still possible) might bottom around $1283-86 before starting the new rally to $1432-40.

BTW, that top at $1432-40 could coincide with the FED interest hike. After topping at this level, wave 3 would be followed by another correction (wave 4) to $1312-21, although $1252 is the theoretical target. This correction could last quite a few months.

Finally, wave 5 should take Gold up to $1522-32 or higher.

(i) I predicted this low to be in the area 1043-1032 two years ago!

Monthly chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly chart - Click to enlarge

Daily chart - Click to enlarge

Wednesday, 6 July 2016


Hi Traders,

Yes, I got it wrong on Gold. I tripped over a common mistake with Elliott Wave analysis. BTW, the new uptrend is in full steam and the limit seems to be only the sky.


1) $1433-35
2) $1475
2) $1525-35


The monthly and weekly charts show the beginning of a new uptrend. At present the closest targets for a retracements is the area $1427-$1441.

Note the ABC retracement from $1922 to $1046. This looks very much like a Cycle or Supercycle wave 2. If this is true, Gold just started a new very long wave 3.

It also means that people are divesting from their investments in shares, bonds and even cash to buy Gold as a safe heaven. Given the expected length of the unfolding wave 3,  this period of economic uncertainty and instability may last quite a long time.

Monthly Chart - click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - click to enlarge

Daily Chart - click to enlarge

4-hour Chart - click to enlarge

Wednesday, 11 May 2016

GOLD to resume major downtrend

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1269.00) should top around $1,306 and maybe the area $1,3019-1,324. Then, it should  resume the major downtrend to the final target just below $900. If this occurs, it's going to be a $400 dollar juicy trade.


First up to the area $1306-24.
Then down to $1184.
Final Long Term Target: area $882-861


The 1-hour chart below shows that we just need a small wave up to conclude the present rally which started on 03/12/2015. It might take 2-3 weeks. The theoretical top is $1306.87 but it might travel up to the area $1319-1324.

The really interesting thing in the weekly chart below is that there is a huge a-b-c retracement in the making, where Wave C (not labelled yet) is still unfolding with 5 waves (magenta) down. Of these 5 waves, we are going to see the completion of Wave 4 right now. Then Wave 5 should take Gold down to the area $882-861.

The monthly chart below shows the targets (blue lines)

Montly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

Sunday, 21 February 2016


Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD is going through a wave configuration that could ultimately lead to 2 very different outcomes. Let's see what's the situation.

At the first glance, the monthly and weekly charts below seem to display a completion of all waves down, setting the stage for a major reversal.

In fact the weekly chart shows a group of 3 "fives" at the bottom right. This is normally a sign that a downtrend ended and a new uptrend just started over.

However, a more careful examination of the daily and 4-hour charts  reveals a tricky situation: although the AUDUSD is actually moving up, this could lead to  two different outcomes:
  • case one: the new major uptrend started already and the Aussie dollar is heading to 0.85.
  • case two: this is just a temporary uptrend that is heading only to 0.7849 and reversing down. 

As much depends by the current wave labeling in the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts below, I provided below 2 separate interpretation of the daily and 4-hour charts, named:

  • daily chart 1
  • daily chart 2
  • 4-hour chart 1
  • 4-hour chart 2


At present, case one displayed in the daily-chart-1, the 4-hour-chart-1 seem the most sensible interpretation of the wave sub-division and so the target at 0.85.

This seems to be confirmed by the wave sub-division of the 1-hour chart below.

However, Let's keep an open mind. 

PS: I'm trying to convert my newsletters into videos but I'm still learning. I'll let you know.

Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 1- Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 1 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge