AUDUSD last rally (for now)

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8092) is performing the last rally to the area 0.82335-0.82635 before resuming the downtrend to 0.7267-0.7222 which should be the "final destination".

TARGETS

first up to

likely: 0.8154
possibly: 0.82335-0.82635

then down to

likely: 0.7694-0.7671
possibly: 0.7349-0.7304
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays that we are performing wave 4 (in red) to the area 0.82190 - 0.82587. The 4-hour chart reveals  instead that wave 3 (in blue) is not complete yet. Hence, there's plenty of room to move up to the area 0.82335-0.82635.

NOTE: Just bear in mind that once around 0.8162 it will correct to 0.8030 before jumping up again to the area 0.82335-0.82635.





monthly chart - click to enlarge



 



weekly chart - click to enlarge



 

daily chart - click to enlarge



 

4 hour chart - click to enlarge



 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge



 

 

EURUSD pretending to be weak

Hi Traders,

EURUSD (now at 1.1197) is set to drop to 1.1115-1.1096 or lower and then attempt another rally to the area 1.1459-1.1539.

TARGETS

first down

likely: 1.1115-1.1096
possibly: 1.1040-1.1028
maybe: 1.0987

then up

likely: 1.1425-1.1459
possibly: 1.15391.1565

ELLIOTT WAVES

The Euro is performing wave "e" in the monthly chart and wave 4 in the weekly & daily charts. The 4-hour chart reveals that wave 4 is not completed as we are expecting 5 waves up (in black) from the bottom of wave 2 (in blue).


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI 200 major reverse

Hi Traders,

First some apologies for not writing for a month but I now work for Vantage FX in Sydney and there's little time for other activities.

BTW, you are very welcome to call me at +61 2 8999 2046 - 4pm to 11pm - or  through Skype (mariodconti).

The SPI 200

After hitting level 6009 (as predicted last year) the SPI 200 started reversing down and it's now close to the first low in the area 5540-5521.

After this low, it's supposed to bounce back up to 4685-5697 but only to follow with a new downtrend to 5459-5475 or even 5334-5320.

NOTE: If this wave count is correct, this major reversal could get much lower then 5000 over the medium run.

  

TARGETS

• down to 5540-5521
• up to 4685-5697
• down to 5459-5475 or 5334-5320

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the 3 waves we were expecting (in blue, font 12) are fully shaped. This three waves are part of the major wave 2 (in red, font 14) that topped at 6009.

Theoretically this is it, and, unless the last minute surprise, we don't expect any wave 4 and 5 up. Basically, it's a major reversal.

The 4-hour chart shows that we have started wave 3 down but we have only completed 3 waves out of 5. Hence, expect the SPI 200 to bounce back to form wave 4 up.




  

 monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hou chart - click to enlarge

USDSGD, starting the last rally

Hi Traders, 

The USDSGD reached the predicted target area - between the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart - and started the last rally that should take it up to the area 1.4002-1.4205 (see monthly chart)

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart and in the weekly chart to visually identify the new target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 1.3993
possibly: 1.4048 - 1.4103
maybe: 1.4223
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

 The daily and the 4-hour charts display clearly that the wave 4 is fully formed. It should be followed by a rally named wave 5 that should take the USDSGD to the targets above indicated.

 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge

 

 

 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

AUDUSD , still moving down

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD reached the area I suggested since early 2014 at 0.7590-0.7528 - see green horizontal lines in the monthly chart - and I  honestly thought that the ultimate low was going to be around 0.7501.

However the wave count in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts suggests that the downtrend may not be over yet.

Hence, in case there's a breakout of the support at 0.7501 - with or without some help from the RBA next week - the AUDUSD might finally sink to the next target at 0.7277-0.7241. 

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart to visually identify the target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7424-0.7386
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of major wave 4. See the NOTE below.

The 1-hour chart reveals that we still have some little way down to complete wave 5 (in green).

The 1-hour chart further clarifies that this wave 5 is still at the beginning, having completed only sub-waves 1, 2 and maybe 3 (in green) out of 5.

Hence, once the small wave 3 is fully formed, the AUDUSD should bounce back to level 0.76 to form a very small wave 4 in the 1-hour chart.

In turn, the latter will be followed by the small wave 5 to 0.75001 or down to 0.7277-0.7241.

NOTE: Once the entire set of five waves occurred in each time frame, this will automatically enforce the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule).

This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs (Time Turning Points).



FIBONACCI

If major wave 4 ends in the area 0.7277-0.7241, it will match 100% the length of major wave 2 - see the monthly chart.

Furthermore, that area also marks a Fibonacci "Confluence" (K) where two major Fibo Nodes (61.8% and 76.4%) coincide. See the monthly chart.



 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge

 

 

 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

 

daily chart - click to enlarge

 

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 

1-hour chart - click to enlarge