GOLD to resume major downtrend

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1269.00) should top around $1,306 and maybe the area $1,3019-1,324. Then, it should  resume the major downtrend to the final target just below $900. If this occurs, it's going to be a $400 dollar juicy trade.

TARGETS

First up to the area $1306-24.
Then down to $1184.
Final Long Term Target: area $882-861

ELLIOTT WAVES

The 1-hour chart below shows that we just need a small wave up to conclude the present rally which started on 03/12/2015. It might take 2-3 weeks. The theoretical top is $1306.87 but it might travel up to the area $1319-1324.

The really interesting thing in the weekly chart below is that there is a huge a-b-c retracement in the making, where Wave C (not labelled yet) is still unfolding with 5 waves (magenta) down. Of these 5 waves, we are going to see the completion of Wave 4 right now. Then Wave 5 should take Gold down to the area $882-861.

The monthly chart below shows the targets (blue lines)




Montly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

AUDUSD DILEMMA

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD is going through a wave configuration that could ultimately lead to 2 very different outcomes. Let's see what's the situation.

At the first glance, the monthly and weekly charts below seem to display a completion of all waves down, setting the stage for a major reversal.

In fact the weekly chart shows a group of 3 "fives" at the bottom right. This is normally a sign that a downtrend ended and a new uptrend just started over.

However, a more careful examination of the daily and 4-hour charts  reveals a tricky situation: although the AUDUSD is actually moving up, this could lead to  two different outcomes:

• case one: the new major uptrend started already and the Aussie dollar is heading to 0.85.

• case two: this is just a temporary uptrend that is heading only to 0.7849 and reversing down. 

As much depends by the current wave labeling in the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts below, I provided below 2 separate interpretation of the daily and 4-hour charts, named:

• daily chart 1
• daily chart 2
• 4-hour chart 1
• 4-hour chart 2

CONCLUSION

At present, case one displayed in the daily-chart-1, the 4-hour-chart-1 seem the most sensible interpretation of the wave sub-division and so the target at 0.85.

This seems to be confirmed by the wave sub-division of the 1-hour chart below.

However, Let's keep an open mind. 

PS: I'm trying to convert my newsletters into videos but I'm still learning. I'll let you know.

Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 1- Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 1 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge

AUDUSD bottoming soon

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7063) might stage a small rally to the 0.72 area but only to resume the downtrend that should take it to the area 0.6680-0.6633.

Whatever low the AUDUSD is going to hit (see TARGETS below), this should mark the bottom of the downtrend started on July 27, 2011 at 1.1080. Hence. of a new major uptrend should start right afterwards.

TARGETS

first the 0.71 area
then
likely: 0.6765-0.6680
possibly: 0.6680-0.6633
maybe: 0.6406-0.6284

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily and the 4-hour chart show that the Aussie just started wave 5 downwards which should mark the end of the major downtrend.

The 1-hour chart reveals that this very short term rally could stop below 0.7097.

See the targets in the monthly chart.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

GOLD last dive

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1114) topped at 1128.06 within the target area at 1126-1133 (see weekly and daily chart).

Unless an "extension" occurs, the yellow metal should climb up to 1122-24 but only to start the very last downtrend to the area at 1006-990 (see monthly chart).

At that low, Gold is supposed to "hit the low & reverse up". In so doing, the downtrend started on September 06, 2011 at 1920.70 will be filed to history.

NOTE

Some Elliott Wave analysts might claim that "the expected final target" should sit in the area 861-846. 

I have no objection to that, as it's 

• right between the 61.8% to the 66% retracement, as it often happens.
• right in the middle of "wave 4" (see the monthly chart).
• wave 4 (in the major uptrend) belongs to a minor grade (as required by the theory), if compared of the bigger grade of the a-b-c-d-e retracement that it's ending right now.

However, at present, the area at 1006-990 is my favourite target. We'll see.

PS: 

Just a curiosity: level $1085.84 marks the 50% retracement of the major uptrend started in 1999 and ended in 2011.


TARGETS

Short Term Supports

- 1098
- 1089
- 1082
- 1071
- 1034

LONG TERM TARGETS

likely: 1034
possible: 1006-990
maybe: 861-846


ELLIOTT WAVES

A confirmation that 1128.06 is the top of wave 4 comes from the daily and 4-hour charts. Here, wave 4 is made of an a-b-c, which is the way it should be.

In turn, wave c is sub-divided in 5 waves, which is again the way it should be. 

Hence, unless we see a 3 wave  extension up, all ducks seem to be in a raw to start wave 5 on the wave down.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-huour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge