GOLD NEW PHASE

Hi Traders,

Yes, I got it wrong on Gold. I tripped over a common mistake with Elliott Wave analysis. BTW, the new uptrend is in full steam and the limit seems to be only the sky.

TARGETS

1) $1433-35
2) $1475
2) $1525-35


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show the beginning of a new uptrend. At present the closest targets for a retracements is the area $1427-$1441.

Note the ABC retracement from $1922 to $1046. This looks very much like a Cycle or Supercycle wave 2. If this is true, Gold just started a new very long wave 3.

It also means that people are divesting from their investments in shares, bonds and even cash to buy Gold as a safe heaven. Given the expected length of the unfolding wave 3,  this period of economic uncertainty and instability may last quite a long time.



Monthly Chart - click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - click to enlarge

Daily Chart - click to enlarge

4-hour Chart - click to enlarge

GOLD to resume major downtrend

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1269.00) should top around $1,306 and maybe the area $1,3019-1,324. Then, it should  resume the major downtrend to the final target just below $900. If this occurs, it's going to be a $400 dollar juicy trade.

TARGETS

First up to the area $1306-24.
Then down to $1184.
Final Long Term Target: area $882-861

ELLIOTT WAVES

The 1-hour chart below shows that we just need a small wave up to conclude the present rally which started on 03/12/2015. It might take 2-3 weeks. The theoretical top is $1306.87 but it might travel up to the area $1319-1324.

The really interesting thing in the weekly chart below is that there is a huge a-b-c retracement in the making, where Wave C (not labelled yet) is still unfolding with 5 waves (magenta) down. Of these 5 waves, we are going to see the completion of Wave 4 right now. Then Wave 5 should take Gold down to the area $882-861.

The monthly chart below shows the targets (blue lines)




Montly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

AUDUSD DILEMMA

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD is going through a wave configuration that could ultimately lead to 2 very different outcomes. Let's see what's the situation.

At the first glance, the monthly and weekly charts below seem to display a completion of all waves down, setting the stage for a major reversal.

In fact the weekly chart shows a group of 3 "fives" at the bottom right. This is normally a sign that a downtrend ended and a new uptrend just started over.

However, a more careful examination of the daily and 4-hour charts  reveals a tricky situation: although the AUDUSD is actually moving up, this could lead to  two different outcomes:

• case one: the new major uptrend started already and the Aussie dollar is heading to 0.85.

• case two: this is just a temporary uptrend that is heading only to 0.7849 and reversing down. 

As much depends by the current wave labeling in the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts below, I provided below 2 separate interpretation of the daily and 4-hour charts, named:

• daily chart 1
• daily chart 2
• 4-hour chart 1
• 4-hour chart 2

CONCLUSION

At present, case one displayed in the daily-chart-1, the 4-hour-chart-1 seem the most sensible interpretation of the wave sub-division and so the target at 0.85.

This seems to be confirmed by the wave sub-division of the 1-hour chart below.

However, Let's keep an open mind. 

PS: I'm trying to convert my newsletters into videos but I'm still learning. I'll let you know.

Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 1- Click to enlarge

Daily Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 1 - Click to enlarge

4-hour Chart 2 - Click to enlarge

1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge

AUDUSD bottoming soon

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7063) might stage a small rally to the 0.72 area but only to resume the downtrend that should take it to the area 0.6680-0.6633.

Whatever low the AUDUSD is going to hit (see TARGETS below), this should mark the bottom of the downtrend started on July 27, 2011 at 1.1080. Hence. of a new major uptrend should start right afterwards.

TARGETS

first the 0.71 area
then
likely: 0.6765-0.6680
possibly: 0.6680-0.6633
maybe: 0.6406-0.6284

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily and the 4-hour chart show that the Aussie just started wave 5 downwards which should mark the end of the major downtrend.

The 1-hour chart reveals that this very short term rally could stop below 0.7097.

See the targets in the monthly chart.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge