S&P 500, Sunday, September 23, 2012

Hi Traders,

 

 Is it time for a major turnaround in S&P500? Well, it's the Gann Day! (check the Barrons article). It's the day pinpointed by W. D. Gann when markets are more likely to reverse than any other day of the year.

 

This time, unless the S&P500 performs another extended wave up (it's possible), it could be the one of the major turnaround of the last 5 years. Hence, please take a moment to read this short analysis down to the 5-min chart.

 

Just a quick note: I will run a Trading Course in Melbourne about Elliott Waves, Candlesticks and Fibonacci, on Sat Oct 13 and Sun Oct 14 in Melbourne.

For further info please contact me at

E: info@elliottwaves.com.au
W: +61(0)2 8003 4618
M: +61(0)405 233 578
Skype ID: mariodconti

 

ANALYSIS

 

The magenta channel in the the weekly chart below was touched 5 times (see ellipses). We just need 4 to confirm that, at the end of this impulse wave up there could be a breakout on the downside.

 

The Elliott Waves 5.5.5 - on top right - reveal the very end of every major and minor cycle altogether. In addition, the Stochastic is  performing a weekly divergence down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, when labelling Elliott Waves gets really too complicated, I label all waves up to 9 (or even 13) although, this is just another way to indicate a 5 wave trend (up).

 

The waves in the daily chart below were labelled up to 9, the latter still to be completed.

 

Moreover, wave 9 was further subdivided in 5 tiny waves (labelled in a small green font). Still, almost completed.

 

Note that, unless another extention starts over, this wave needs only a very tiny  wave up to reach the very top and reverse a really major uptrend.

 

In few words, we need to monitor the start of the last wave up to get in position for our major reversal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact that time is running out for this ongoing trend is confirmed by the 4-hour chart below touching the channel boundaries 4 times. This is how a wave 5 usually unfolds.

 

Fibonacci calculations show a possible target in the area 1492-1494.5 (red lines at the very top).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The retracement wave (wave 4) in the 1-hour chart below was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.

 

The blue line in the middle of the 1-hour chart below was the expected target of wave 2 (middle chart, extreme right) before re-starting the uptrend. with waves 3, 4 and 5.

 

The Fibonacci measurements of the 1-hour chart below show some more targets: 1468-1469, 1483-1485 and 1507-1509.

 

 

 

 

 

The 15-min chart below testifies the completion of wave 2 - in blue, centre right. This retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.

 

It's now ready to shoot up with waves 3, 4 and 5.

 

 

 

 

In the 5-min chart below the retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.

It's now ready for the last 3 tiny ripples up before starting the  reversal.