AUDUSD, resuming downtrend

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9239) performed a double top (see 1-hour chart below) and resumed the downtrend to 0.8419-0.8303 and lower (see monthly chart).


TARGETS

likely: 0.8672
possibly: 0.8578-0.8509
maybe: 0.8419-0.8303

ELLIOTT WAVES

After point "d", the AUDUSD is staging a very long "wave e" (weekly chart) that could potentially take the Aussie to 0.81 in 5 waves. Four of these waves now seem to be completed (weekly chart).

At present we're staging the beginning of wave 5 - see 1-hour chart


WAVE OSCILLATOR

Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inner lines in the daily.

Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.





monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

SPI 200 plunging

Hi Traders,


Here is a nice setup supported by a trigger of the wave oscillator.
The SPI200 (now at 5327) is moving South to the targets displayed in the weekly chart below.

STOP LOSS

initially stop loss: 5486

then

trailing stop: 94 points

NOTE:

Drop your stop loss and set your trailing stop within few minutes.

TARGETS

likely: 4994-4953

possibly: 4836-4816

maybe: 4570-4563

ELLIOTT WAVES

As you can see in the monthly chart below The SPI200 performed wave 3 up followed by a double top with wave b. The latter will be followed by c, d and e on the way down. 

SPI200  monthly - click to enlarge

SPI200  weekly - click to enlarge

SPI200  daily - click to enlarge

SPI200 : wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge

SPI200  4-hour - click to enlarge

SPI200  1-hour - click to enlarge

EURGBP & USDJPY

Hi Traders,


Here is a couple of nice setups supported by a trigger of the wave oscillator.

Both EURGBP (now at 0.8333) & USDJPY (now at 103.35) should start a nice uptrend. The former to 0.8549-0.8575 and the latter to 106.81.

EURGBP

ELLIOTT WAVES

The EURGBP started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green) on a very large scale (major waves 1-2-3-4 started in May 2000 at 0.5682).

TARGETS

likely: 0.8549-0.8575

possibly: 0.8575

maybe: 0.9254

EURGBP daily - click to enlarge

EURGBP: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY

ELLIOTT WAVES

The USDJPY started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green).

TARGETS

likely: 105.43-105.83

possibly:106.81-107.33

maybe:108.44-108.71

USDJPY daily - click to enlarge

USDJPY: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD topping?

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.3800) hit the resistance at 1.3824 as well as the upper line of the triangle - see weekly chart below. Although there's still some potential for a "throw over" till 1.3856, the currency should reverse soon to 1.35 and lower.

TARGETS

likely: 1.3489-1.3458
possibly: 1.3264-1.3249
maybe: 1.2993-1.2967

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with a two-step pattern (wave 2 in the weekly chart).

The daily chart and the 4-hour chart below show waves 1 & 2 (in red). The top of the latter should be the prelude to the new downtrend.

Theoretically, this should be a 5 waves pattern leading well below the area at 1.2396-1.2329 if the Euro breaks through the major support at 1.2993-1.2967.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

S&P 500 Topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chart, Wave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chart, Wave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL last wave up, for now

OUR ANALYSIS WILL SOON BE MOVED TO THE NEW WEBSITE. WE'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 102.52) is set to start the last jump to the area 103.73-104.32 before engaging in a  retracement to 100.71 and maybe to the area 99.21-98.83.

TARGETS:

first up to area 103.73-104.32
then down to:

likely: 100.71
possibly: area 99.21-98.83
maybe: area 97.82-97.23

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the completion of wave 4 around 91.30 and the nearly completion of wave1. The 4-hour chart shows 8 waves up out of 9 and so the 1-hour chart. Wave 9 should reach the area 103.73-104.32. Then we should have a reversal.

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge

1-hour chart, click to enlarge

USDJPY perfect entry

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 101.78) did exactly as predicted.

Although another small drop to level 101.63-101.45 is still a possibility, it should start soon the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.

TARGETS 

likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011.

4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet. 

The daily chart clearly displays 4 intermediate waves up out of 5.

The 5th wave up has just started with minuette wave 1 & 2, as you can see in the 4-hour chart.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDGBP uptrend

Hi Traders,

It's not a mystery that the Pound is commonly named "the b...ch" by traders. It can be really tricky, you wouldn't disagree.

I have to confess that I was abit too complacent last night and I was stopped out.

But I am sort-of-excused as I witnessed too many irregular formations on the Pound in the last 5 years in terms of:

• unusually complex retracement formations
• unusual high number of double-triple tops and bottoms
• uncommon number of broadening formations

In practice the GBPUSD gave me quite a hard time but, in positive terms, I think that this is part of my never-ending learning curve.

ANALYSIS

Although the GBPUSD (now at 1.6616) is heading to 1.6763-1.6820 and maybe 1.7045-1.7186, it might stage a limited retracement very soon.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.6763-1.6820
possibly: 1.6880
maybe: area 1.7045-1.7186

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that this is the last wave up (wave 5). The daily chart shows that this is the 5th of the 5th. Hence: watch carefully the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart to spot the end of the trend.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge