AUDUSD, Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Big Apologies. I thing I got the wrong wave count about the Aussie.

The new wave count in the monthly chart below shows that we completed 5 waves up and also the retracement waves A and B.

This goes a bit against the rules as major wave 4 is well into the territory of major wave 1.

The new long term target is around 0.86875 and 0.79491 that coincides with the DiNapoli Confluences (K).

This is consistent with the bleak view of the IMF (Internation Monetary Fund) about the Commodity price for the next decade. The Reserve Bank's Commodity Price Index also peaked in August, and was down by almost 10 per cent in March.

Also, there is the chance that the whole Major Wave Cycle (1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C) will last exactly 144 month (12 years), from April 2001 to the end of March 2013.

The weekly chart below shows that we started wave C - down - over 6 weeks ago with a possible target around 0.91775. Keep an eye on level 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%

In the daily chart below the first leg of Wave C is structured in a  common a-b-c-d-e-X-a-b-c-d-e, also known as the 5-3-5 retracement wave. If this wave is correct it will be followed by a rally to level 38.2% (1.04685) or higher. 

See the "hammer" in  the 4hour chart below as it often occurs at the end of "wave e". It's a reversal pattern up and it shows the beginning of a temporary pullback.

The 4 yellow triangles are a warning that we touched the bounderies of the blue channel 4 times and there is a chance of breakout.

The hammer is confirmed by another reversal up: the "engulfing pattern" of the 1hour chart below.

Finally the 15min chart below shows 9 waves up, which is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern up. It's the beginning of the pulback described in the daily chart.

SPI200, April 10, 2012

Is the SPI200 at the end of the line?

If the wave count is correct in the weekly chart below, wave 5 might be over. Usually, a breakout occurs after 4 contact points of the channel boundaries. Will it be on the downside?

This is confirmed by the 4H chart below that shows  4 contact points of another channel: the one enveloping the first wave down.  Note that a 9 wave pattern is equal to a 5 wave pattern.

Usually there is a little pull back before starting the new downtrend and also a breakout of the channel.  The targets for the pullback are at 4322 (38%), 4335 (50%) and 4348 (61.8%). All of them could be entry points.

Any value above could imply that the whole Elliott Wave count is wrong.

The 1H chart below ahows that the pull back could stop also at 4309-4316. Finally, to limit the risk, you may want to enter at the breakout of the strong support at 4295

AUDUSD, Tuesday April 2

Definitively a jittery FX market today.

AUDUSD monthly chart below still needs to complete wave 5 (in turquoise). I suggest 2 possible targets at 1.1060 and 1.1250, both having the same probabilities .

The weekly chart below shows that we've already completed 4 waves up within the major wave 5. We are now touching the bottom of the channel, waiting for the pull back up to unfold wave 5.5

The daily chart below the completion of wave 5.4 and the start of the new trend up that will complete the set of 5 waves

The 4hour chart below shows a target of 1.04780-1.05120 provided that we cross the resistance at 1.04400.

Finally, the 1hour chart below shows targets at 1.04860 and 1.05290. We'll see.



SPI200, Thursday, March 29 2012

I've been asked to publish my analysis of the SPI200. Well, it doesn't seems reassuring at all.

Starting from the MONTHLY CHART below, it's preatty clear that the SPI200  failed to reach level 4,400 and it actually stopped right on level 50% (4,363). If an A-B-C-D-E unfolds the target could be 3,700.

In the WEEKLY CHART below I use a count of 7 waves - in red - which is equivalent to a 3 wave retracement pattern. Instead a count of  9 is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern - in white.

The chart completed 5 waves up and doesn't seem to be willing to rise any further. The relevant information in this chart is that curious formation called PINOCCHIO, a candlestick that shows a possible target at 3,700.

The daily chart below confirms 5 waves up - in white. Short tem target a 4,200 (the red line). Note the channel in blue: the chart touched the boundaries 4 times. Consequently, it's expected to breakout soon. The last wave up (wave 5) is considered a "through over", an indication of impending reversal according to Gann.

The 4H CHART below shows the completion of 9 wave up - equivalent to 5 waves - after wave 4 in ligtht blue. The last 2 candles with long tails confirm the possible reversal pattern. This is also a double top which further confirms a reversal condition.

Finally, the 1H CHART below shows clearly all 9 waves up, plus a double top. Also, just under the number 9, there is a reversal engulfing candlestick pattern.

What I will try to do: shortening the index by entering just below level 4,350. Target 4,302 (level 50%).

EURUSD, Wednesday, March 28 2012

The EURUSD started the new uptrend almost 8 weeks ago as for the monthly chart below. After completing wave 1 and 2 is now heading for wave 3. But watch out: if the uptrend stops at the upper boundary of the blue channel - 1.3440-1.3480 - we would have to re-think the whole wave count.

The weekly chart below confirm the temporary wave count but also show that we are on support resistance and we may have a small retracement

The daily chart below also shows a breakway candlestick which is usually very bullish

The 4h chart below also shows that we reached the target a 1.33850 followed but the start of retracement wave 4. If the wave count is right, the possible targets are 1.13267and 1.32400.

The 1h chart below shows our wave count more in detail. Given the major confluence (K), the new set of 5 waves down should fetch 1.3280. Also, other lower confluences are can be attained.

USDYEN, Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Hi everyone, I'm currently trying hard to make this Blog working. Just bear with me for a while. The Content Management System simply drives me nuts. I will try to keep it updated every day.


As you see by the 30min chart I'm waiting for a mild retreat to get long again. The pair stopped just before the 38.2% trend line and touched the confluence (K)

This is part of a long process. as you can see by the monthly chart below, the USDYEN completed a 120 month cycle (10years), from Feb 2002 to Feb 2012. This new phase might take it back to 101.

Below USDYEN weekly. If the wave count is correct, the pair is trying to complete wave 5, i.e. last inpulse wave up, for the time being.

Also check the USDYEN in the 4hour chart below which stopped right at a conflunce. If that is a hammer, it's the start of a trend. Instead, if that is a Pinocchio then the chart will come back to the same low  before starting the new uptrend. Will see.

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