Hi Traders,
As it often occurred in the past, I disagree with many traders. I believe that whatever the FED is going to say, the US$ is going strength. Meaning: the weakness of the USD is over and it's going to start a new rally.
Hence, here some of my findings
COMMODITIES
GOLD, now at 1284, should top around 1290-1300 and resume the downtrend
WTI OIL, now at 100.31, should top around 100.71 and resume the downtrend
MAJOR CURRENCIES
AUDUSD, now at 0.9025, should top around 0.9036 and resume the downtrend
EURUSD, now at 1.3667, should top around 1.3698-13700 and resume the downtrend
USDCHF, now at 0.8955, should resume the uptrend to 1.078 and over
INDICES
S&P500, now at 1802.75, should top around 1810 and resume the downtrend
DAX30, now at 9411.25, should top around 9,900-10,000 and resume the downtrend
FT100, now at 6605, should resume the downtrend straight away
SPI200, now at 5211, should resume the downtrend straight away
ps: apologies, no display of charts this time
Cheeers
Mario D. Conti
Tuesday 11 February 2014
Thursday 30 January 2014
GBPUSD ready to reverse
Hi Traders,
The GBPUSD stopped and reversed at 1.6668, a good "figure" short of my target at 1.6763-1.6810.
Although there's still a some potential for the very last jump up to the target at 1.6763-1.6810, that would be the Swan Song.
With or without jump, it's almost ready for a downtrend to the area 1.6127-1.6036 although the Wave Oscillator keeps warning to wait for a safe entry cross of the red lines.
TARGETS
first to 1.6763-1.6810 (maybe)
then
likely: 1.6127-1.6036
possibly: 1.6029-1.5963
maybe: 1.5859-1.5831
ENTRY
Entry only when the red lines of the wave oscillator cross. This is not happening in daily chart nor in the 4-hour chart.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Check the monthly chart. Theoretically the Pound is heading down to the area 1.60-1.58 and then back up to 1.70.
The weekly chart displays the target areas in green (calculated with the Fibonacci Queen Method) and blue (for simple Fibonacci calculations)
The daily chart shows the completion of 5 waves up. Note also the last 3 "doji" candles signalling weakness.
The 4-hour chart displays 5 complete waves up as well.
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
The GBPUSD stopped and reversed at 1.6668, a good "figure" short of my target at 1.6763-1.6810.
Although there's still a some potential for the very last jump up to the target at 1.6763-1.6810, that would be the Swan Song.
With or without jump, it's almost ready for a downtrend to the area 1.6127-1.6036 although the Wave Oscillator keeps warning to wait for a safe entry cross of the red lines.
TARGETS
first to 1.6763-1.6810 (maybe)
then
likely: 1.6127-1.6036
possibly: 1.6029-1.5963
maybe: 1.5859-1.5831
ENTRY
Entry only when the red lines of the wave oscillator cross. This is not happening in daily chart nor in the 4-hour chart.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Check the monthly chart. Theoretically the Pound is heading down to the area 1.60-1.58 and then back up to 1.70.
The weekly chart displays the target areas in green (calculated with the Fibonacci Queen Method) and blue (for simple Fibonacci calculations)
The daily chart shows the completion of 5 waves up. Note also the last 3 "doji" candles signalling weakness.
The 4-hour chart displays 5 complete waves up as well.
monthly chart - click to enlarge
weekly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge
Monday 27 January 2014
USDJPY, last dive before the last rally
Hi Traders,
The USDJPY (now at 102.76 ) might soon take the last dive to the area 101.76-101.51 before starting the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.
TARGETS
first: down to 101.76-101.51
then up to
likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011. 4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet.
The daily chart shows 4 intermediate waves although minor wave 4 won't be completed unless it reaches the area 101.76-101.51 (4-hour chart).
weekly chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
The USDJPY (now at 102.76 ) might soon take the last dive to the area 101.76-101.51 before starting the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.
TARGETS
first: down to 101.76-101.51
then up to
likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011. 4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet.
The daily chart shows 4 intermediate waves although minor wave 4 won't be completed unless it reaches the area 101.76-101.51 (4-hour chart).
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
Friday 24 January 2014
GBPUSD reversal
Hi Traders
The GBPUSD - now at 1.6500 - missed the target for a whisker and reversed. It's now heading towards 1.6020.
TARGETS:
likely: 1.6383
possible: 1.62 - 1.6130
maybe 1.6020
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart shows the completion of wave 3 up. Theoretically, the Pound should stage wave 4 down to 1.5841 and wave 5 up to the area 1.6763-1.6810.
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
The GBPUSD - now at 1.6500 - missed the target for a whisker and reversed. It's now heading towards 1.6020.
TARGETS:
likely: 1.6383
possible: 1.62 - 1.6130
maybe 1.6020
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart shows the completion of wave 3 up. Theoretically, the Pound should stage wave 4 down to 1.5841 and wave 5 up to the area 1.6763-1.6810.
monthly chart - click to enlarge
weekly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge
Thursday 23 January 2014
SPI200 heading south
Hi Traders,
The SPI200, now at 5211, is heading to 5000 and much lower. We're expecting a small rebound to 5238 when it touches the support around 5190.
Level 5238 could be a good entry point.
TARGETS
likely: 5065-5040
possibly: 4942
maybe: 4860
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart shows that the SPI200 completed waves 1,2 and 3 and it's now developing wave 4 with a zigzag or a flat lasting several months.
The operational range of this zigzag or flat should be between 5460 and 4660 or lower.
Monthly chart, click to enlarge
Weekly chart, click to enlarge
The SPI200, now at 5211, is heading to 5000 and much lower. We're expecting a small rebound to 5238 when it touches the support around 5190.
Level 5238 could be a good entry point.
TARGETS
likely: 5065-5040
possibly: 4942
maybe: 4860
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart shows that the SPI200 completed waves 1,2 and 3 and it's now developing wave 4 with a zigzag or a flat lasting several months.
The operational range of this zigzag or flat should be between 5460 and 4660 or lower.
Monthly chart, click to enlarge
Weekly chart, click to enlarge
Daily chart, click to enlarge
Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge
4-hour chart, click to enlarge
wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge
1-hour chart, click to enlarge
Tuesday 21 January 2014
EURUSD, according to plan
Hi Traders,
The EURUSD, now a 1.3550, did exactly as predicted and seems to be heading to 1.30.
TARGETS
likely: 1.3470-1.3451
possibly: 1.3318-1.3290
maybe: 1.3175-1.3159
ELLIOTT WAVES
After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in Magenta in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with two-step pattern (wave 2 in Magenta in the weekly chart).
Theoretically, this should be followed by 5 waves down well below 1.2970-80, if the Euro breaks this important support.
NOTE
The Euro might attempt to rally to 1.3597 before resuming the downtrend.
Monthly chart, click to enlarge
Weekly chart, click to enlarge
The EURUSD, now a 1.3550, did exactly as predicted and seems to be heading to 1.30.
TARGETS
likely: 1.3470-1.3451
possibly: 1.3318-1.3290
maybe: 1.3175-1.3159
ELLIOTT WAVES
After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in Magenta in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with two-step pattern (wave 2 in Magenta in the weekly chart).
Theoretically, this should be followed by 5 waves down well below 1.2970-80, if the Euro breaks this important support.
NOTE
The Euro might attempt to rally to 1.3597 before resuming the downtrend.
Monthly chart, click to enlarge
Weekly chart, click to enlarge
Daily chart, click to enlarge
Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge
4-hour chart, click to enlarge
wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge
1-hour chart, click to enlarge
Monday 20 January 2014
AUDUSD, rebound
Hi Traders,
The AUDUSD (now at 0.8762) has almost reached the target around 0.8750. This should be followed by a short rally to 0.8864-0.8900 before resuming the downtrend to 0.8067-0.8047.
If the pattern that is unfolding is an "Expanded Flat" the new rally could be more substantial. See the note below.
TARGETS
first: 0.8864-0.8900
then:
likely: 0.8613
possibly: 0.8427
maybe: 0.8067-0.8047
ELLIOTT WAVES
After point "d", the AUDUSD seems to be staging a very long "wave e" (weekly chart). This can either be in 3 or 5 waves
NOTE:
There's a chance that we are witnessing an "Expanded Flat" in the daily chart.
If this is the case, point "2" (in magenta) should be renamed "a" followed by "b" around 0.8750 and "c" around 0.9148-0.9166.
Hence, the temporary rally could take the pair to 0.9148-0.9166 before resuming the downtrend.
WAVE OSCILLATOR
Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inside lines in the daily or 4-hour charts.
Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.
monthly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
The AUDUSD (now at 0.8762) has almost reached the target around 0.8750. This should be followed by a short rally to 0.8864-0.8900 before resuming the downtrend to 0.8067-0.8047.
If the pattern that is unfolding is an "Expanded Flat" the new rally could be more substantial. See the note below.
TARGETS
first: 0.8864-0.8900
then:
likely: 0.8613
possibly: 0.8427
maybe: 0.8067-0.8047
ELLIOTT WAVES
After point "d", the AUDUSD seems to be staging a very long "wave e" (weekly chart). This can either be in 3 or 5 waves
NOTE:
There's a chance that we are witnessing an "Expanded Flat" in the daily chart.
If this is the case, point "2" (in magenta) should be renamed "a" followed by "b" around 0.8750 and "c" around 0.9148-0.9166.
Hence, the temporary rally could take the pair to 0.9148-0.9166 before resuming the downtrend.
WAVE OSCILLATOR
Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inside lines in the daily or 4-hour charts.
Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.
monthly chart - click to enlarge
weekly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge
1-hour chart - click to enlarge
wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge
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