EURAUD, a risky matter

Hi Traders,

The EURAUD is now at 1.3000. The weekly chart below shows a nice downtrend followed by a clear "round formation".

When this occurs (long downtrend + round pattern) analysts usually project (one or twice) the distance between the low at 55 and the "neckline" to get some idea of the targets. The targets so calculated are: 1.2910, 1.4205 and 1.5487.

Well, plausible but this time there might be a catch. 

SETUP

Check the waves after the low at 55: they don't seem to have the strength to get to 1.42 (yet) and the whole group of waves looks more like a continuation pattern of the previous downtrend.

If this is correct, the EURAUD may not be able to go through the area 1.3160-1.3228 and, even in the event that it gets to 1.33 it should still retrace to 1.2150.

For the "magicians" of timing, note the 12 weeks cycle that should mark the top of wave 5 this week.

click the chart to enlarge

Note also the cycle of 126 trading days in the daily chart below. More importantly, starting from the low at c4, we might have already 4 waves in place with the 5th one on the way to the area 1.3160-1.3228.

click the chart to enlarge

TRIGGER

Keep an eye to your own 4-hour chart and especially your own 1-hour chart to be able to get the new top.

If this is followed by a nice reversal candlestick + a reversal pattern in the "wave oscillator" you have your entry point downward.

Finally, check the channel in the 4-hour chart below. The pair touched the channel 4 times already. This is usually an indication that the breakout is not too far away.


click the chart to enlarge

AUDUSD, staging a pullback

Hi Traders,

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge

The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge

See the imminent pullback confirmed by a nice "hammer" candlestick. See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) in the 4-hour chart below

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

WTI OIL, are you in?

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.91 - started the nice rally that I predicted last week.

I also predicted a pull back to the area 94.83-94.56 before starting the new uptrend.

It did it religiously - slightly below, to level 93.37 - before staging a nice reversal candlestick (hammer).

Still, be careful as it could bounce back again to the area 94.45-95.05 which  could be a good entry area.

TARGETS:

Likely: 97.68-98.22 and 100.38-100.67
Possible: 101.97
Maybe: 103.40-104.00

SETUP: 

In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves up and its now building the 5th one up.

The daily chart below shows that the Oil performed 4 waves up already (out of 5).

Note that it touched the top trend line 3 times. This time it should go trough it as it completed wave 4 (downward) with a nice hammer candlestick.

Expect the target in the area 97.68-98.22 to perform (all or part of) wave 5 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below but it could rally further up to 100.38-100.67.

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area 94.45-95.05. 

EURUSD, all according to plan

Hi Traders,

All according to plan? It looks like.
Still, be cautious as markets are getting jittery.

Last week I say that EURUSD was likely to bounce up to 1.31 before plunging. It dropped religiously (although it went further up to 1.32).

Now, if this analysis is correct, this should be the last chance to get quite a long trade down to 1.2512 - 1.2330 - 1.2120 - 1.1950 and below, unless the BCE intervenes to stop the slump (I doubt it). 

Supports for the short term:

• 1.2891-1.2880-1.28738

TARGETS (short term)

likely: 1.2891 - 1.2878 - 1.28690
possible: the area 1.2779-1.2748
maybe: the area 1.2687-1.2668 


Check some target the weekly chart right below

ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn downward to 1.2039. See point "55" at the bottom of the chart.

This wave was followed by a two-step-pattern (1up-2dwn-3up). See point "53" at the top of the chart.

This two-step-pattern should be followed by another large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart (in magenta).

Note: if this analysis is correct, this large wave down should be the very last chance to witness a large scale downtrend for the Euro, maybe for few years.

Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart. Wave 3 is not completed yet.

WTI OIL, time for long

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.54 - seems to be ready for a nice rally, up enough for a good trade.

TARGETS:

Likely: 97.50-98.00
Possible: 100.30-100.90
Maybe: 103.5-104

SETUP: 

In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves (sideways) and its now ready for the 5th one up.

The daily chart below shows that the Oil bounced back from the top trend line 3 times and it's now hovering there once again. This is an indication that there's fair enough energy for the new uptrend.

However - even in the likely event that it pulls back to the area 94.83-94.56 (quite possible) - the commodity should start the new uptrend soon.

Expect the first target in the area 97.50-98.00 to complete wave 3 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below.

Then again, a new pullback named "wave 4" will take place, followed by the last rally (possibly) to the area at 100.30-100.90

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area at 94.83-94.56. Hence, don't get into this trade straight away.

EURUSD, time's running out

Hi Traders,

As in the weekly chart below, the Euro - now at 1.3078-79 - is moving  quite precisely with a cycle of top and lows every 34-36 weeks. Although the next 34 weeks cycle will come to an end next week, the Euro seems on the way down already.

Trading sessions in the 1-hour chart showed traders taking both sides quite equally in the previous 3 days and this might be a clue of the market shifting from bullish to bearish.

Moreover, the top at 1.32431 didn't go much further then previous top at 1.32011 forming a sort of double top.

However, a short rally to $1.3094-1.31 might still occur before starting the new  downtrend.

ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 downward to 1.2039 followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).

If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.

Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.



Here are the targets as in the daily chart above

Likely: the area between 1.2990 and 1.2966
Possible: 1.298
Maybe: the area between 1.2779 and 1.2748

AUDUSD, Targets & Timing

Hi Traders,

AUDUSD started a violent downtrend as I predicted last week. The Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in the weekly chart) and it's performing wave "e" downwards in 5 waves. (starting from the top in d5), We now performing  wave 3 (out of 5) as in the daily chart.

The Gann timing suggest that the 5 waves could be completed by May 17-20.

As I said, this "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes (more waves down) and could take the pair below the parity.


FUNDAMENTAL REASONS

The Budget Deficit is out of control.
The government is might increase the taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion.
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further.

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present downtrend started at 1.03845 with wave 3 (of 5). Although there is a reversal candlestick (engulfing pattern) in the daily chart, the "three soldiers" in the 4-hour chart warn of a possible rebound in the area 1.022 to 1.0265 or higher.

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: 1.0010,  1.000,
Possible: 0.9904, 0.9822
Maybe: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000



weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Time Analysis of S&P500, Tuesday May 01, 2013

Hi Traders,

Working on the timing side with Gann and Elliott together takes quite a bit of time but the outcome is amazing!

According to W.D.Gann a trend is "balanced out" when moving along a 45 degrees line, meaning that a "time unit" (a day) must be equal to a "price unit".

Alright. A time unit is "one day" but ... how many index points is a price unit in the S&P500?

I calculated (I might be wrong) that every 36 TRADING days the S&P500 should climb 118.16 points to be on a 45 degree line, meaning 3.2822 points/day which is our "price unit".

Now, check the daily chart below as I found out that, from early June 2012, the S&P500 futures recorded highs and lows every 36 days with a Swiss watch precision!

Furthermore, by combining Elliott Waves and Gann Timing you get a projection of a "possible" calendar day for the next incoming High/Low which should comes to Friday May 24 or Monday May 27, US East Coast Standard Time (a day ahead for Australia).

NOTE: I said High/Low, meaning that can be either one. I can only specify the calendar date.

Finally, take all this with a "pinch of salt" and, please, give me some feedback, included any negative "honest/competent" opinion.

PS: I've repeated this analysis with the SPI200: the new High/Low comes a trading day later.

click to enlarge

For the SPI200 below calculations where a bit more complicated but with the same similar (timing) Swiss precision and outcome, so I won't comment any further.

You may want to contact me for a quick chat. In meantime, check the daily chart below and the weekly chart further down which confirms the same calendar date. 

 click to enlarge

Below the weekly chart of the SPI200

 click to enlarge

AUDUSD collapsing? Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Hi Traders,

Is the AUDUSD on the verge of starting a new downtrend?  If this analysis is correct  the Aussie has completed an "a-b-c-d" and it's ready for wave "e" downwards.

But this time there's something that worries me: the downtrend could be quite swift and the amplitude of the "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes.

FUNDAMENTALS

The Budget Deficit is out of control
The government is going to increase taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present rally could soon end by approaching the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366. Then, a new downtrend might follow

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000


SITUATION

The Aussie at 1.0336 is now below the bunch of "displaced" moving averages (see weekly chart below) sitting together within a very narrow range. This usually happens just before the tempest.



click to enlarge

The  daily chart below shows a reversal candlestick in 5D and an unusual spike in the "volume of trades". Note: Even in case the currency pair reaches 1.040-1.0414 it will still be in bearish territory.


click to enlarge

The inverted Head & Shoulder in the 4-hour chart below may be stopped by the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366 or at 1.0385.


click to enlarge

See the 1-2-3 below (two-step pattern) in the 1-hour chart that could potentially stop the pair and point "3" (in blue).

Note the reversal engulfing pattern at point "3" and the "wave oscillator" alerting to exit the long position (black vertical line)


click to enlarge

USDJPY, Monday, April 29, 2013

Hi Traders,

Markets never stops to surprising me. I thought the USDJPY was going to hit 101.3 but it didn't. If what I see is a real double top, it's time for a downtrend.

SITUATION

USDJPY seems to have completed 5 waves up at 99.944 and needs to recharge for sometimes by implementing a downtrend with 3-5 major waves down. See the 5 waves up in the weekly chart below.

A double top in the daily charts is now casting dark clouds on the currency pair as in the daily chart below.

See the double top in 4-hour chart below and targets/supports in the area 97.22-97.14 and 96.32-96.19

Now check the entry/exit points of the "wave oscillator" in the same 4-hour chart: 

• the blue lines are the entry points for a long
• the red lines are the entry points for a short
• the black vertical lines are exit point for both trades

See the last red line (right end) showing the short? There's no exit yet.