Sunday, 23 September 2012

S&P 500, Sunday, September 23, 2012

Hi Traders,
 
 Is it time for a major turnaround in S&P500? Well, it's the Gann Day! (check the Barrons article). It's the day pinpointed by W. D. Gann when markets are more likely to reverse than any other day of the year.
 
This time, unless the S&P500 performs another extended wave up (it's possible), it could be the one of the major turnaround of the last 5 years. Hence, please take a moment to read this short analysis down to the 5-min chart.
 
Just a quick note: I will run a Trading Course in Melbourne about Elliott Waves, Candlesticks and Fibonacci, on Sat Oct 13 and Sun Oct 14 in Melbourne.

For further info please contact me at

E: info@elliottwaves.com.au
W: +61(0)2 8003 4618
M: +61(0)405 233 578

Skype ID: mariodconti
 
ANALYSIS
 
The magenta channel in the the weekly chart below was touched 5 times (see ellipses). We just need 4 to confirm that, at the end of this impulse wave up there could be a breakout on the downside.
 
The Elliott Waves 5.5.5 - on top right - reveal the very end of every major and minor cycle altogether. In addition, the Stochastic is  performing a weekly divergence down.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Now, when labelling Elliott Waves gets really too complicated, I label all waves up to 9 (or even 13) although, this is just another way to indicate a 5 wave trend (up).
 
The waves in the daily chart below were labelled up to 9, the latter still to be completed.
 
Moreover, wave 9 was further subdivided in 5 tiny waves (labelled in a small green font). Still, almost completed.
 
Note that, unless another extention starts over, this wave needs only a very tiny  wave up to reach the very top and reverse a really major uptrend.
 
In few words, we need to monitor the start of the last wave up to get in position for our major reversal.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The fact that time is running out for this ongoing trend is confirmed by the 4-hour chart below touching the channel boundaries 4 times. This is how a wave 5 usually unfolds.
 
Fibonacci calculations show a possible target in the area 1492-1494.5 (red lines at the very top).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The retracement wave (wave 4) in the 1-hour chart below was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.
 
The blue line in the middle of the 1-hour chart below was the expected target of wave 2 (middle chart, extreme right) before re-starting the uptrend. with waves 3, 4 and 5.
 
The Fibonacci measurements of the 1-hour chart below show some more targets: 1468-1469, 1483-1485 and 1507-1509.




 

 
 
 
 
The 15-min chart below testifies the completion of wave 2 - in blue, centre right. This retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.
 
It's now ready to shoot up with waves 3, 4 and 5.
 
 
 
 




In the 5-min chart below the retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.

It's now ready for the last 3 tiny ripples up before starting the  reversal.




 

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

USDJPY Wednesday, Sept 19, 2019

Hi Traders,

USDJPY is finally moving upwards. As this new uptrend might last month, please check my analysis below as I believe that we have a very good entry point right now.

Just a quick note: I will run a Trading Course in Melbourne about Elliott Waves, Candlesticks and Fibonacci, on Sat Oct 13 and Sun Oct 14.

For further info please contact me at

E: info@elliottwaves.com.au
W: +61(0)2 8003 4618
M: +61(0)405 233 578

Skype ID: mariodconti

USDJPY Analysis.

To fully understand this analysis we need to check the USDJPY history. The chart below shows that the USDJPY was fixed at 360 Yen per US Dollar in 1949 till 1971.

This was followed by a 41 years drop till level 75 yen for a green back in recent times.

The chart shows that we completed 5 major waves down in Feb 2012. The end of the downtrend is confirmed by the last major wave (5) being sub-divided in 5 waves itself. 




The chart below suggest that the first major resistance is around level USDJPY 101.00. Let's see weather this is true (next set of charts).




The monthly chart below shows the last set of 9 waves down (just another way to count 5 waves) and the start of the new uptrend with wave 1 and 2 in blue, at the very bottom right.






The weekly chart below shows that wave 1 and 2 (chart above) are actually a set of 1-2-3-4 in the chart below and that we are at the beginning of wave 5.

Here we have a possible target for wave 5 around 85.00. If extended it could go to 94.30 or even 97.50.



 
 
 
The  daily chart below the completion of the long wave 4 and the start of the minor wave 1 (in blue). This little wave 1 is the first component of 5 (or 9) waves up.
 
 




The 4 hour chart below further sub-divides that wave 1 (chart above) in 5 waves.

This gives us the entry point: just wait for the chart to reach one of the blue horizontal lines at at 78.50 or 78.33.

There should be your entry point if this little retracement stops at the level above mentioned.






The 1 hour chart below shows the USDYPY retracing towards our entry point.



Monday, 10 September 2012

AUDUSD, Tuesday Sept 11, 2012

 
Hi Traders,
 
From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.
 
TIMING
 
To start, let me recall that:
  • In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
  • On Sep 9, 1973  it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
  • On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
  • On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.
I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing one of these 2 possible patterns (not clear yet):
  • a-b-c and then up
  • a-b-c-d-e and then up
- With the former, the wave up is already started (improperly named d and 1 in red)
- With the latter, the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Assuming the second one as more likely to happen, there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141",  top-right of the monthly chart).
 
If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).
 
April 8-9,  2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.
 
Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.
  • Apr 2001 (Low) - Mar 2005 (top), 47 month
  • Apr 2005 (Top) - Jan 2009 (low), 47 month
  • Feb 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).
If this is true, minor wave 5 might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).

TARGETS

By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.

Analysis

The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in  Dec 2012).
 
This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).
 
Wave a-b-c-d are  completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition. 
 
This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).
 
Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.
 
CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE AND "X" TO EXIT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The weekly chart below shows that the pattern a-b-c-d-e is still missing wave "e". Note that the blue channel was touched 4 times: this might be an indication that there should be a breakout of the blue channel after completing wave "e". Note: wave "e" enfolds always in 5-waves-down by definition.
 
Consequently, in the weekly chart below the long term trend is down with a minimum target of 0.99044.
 
 
 
 
 
The daily chart below shows that wave "d" was made out of 7 waves. Theoretically, this confirms that we're are witnessing wave "e" down, starting with 1-2-3-5 (in magenta) and 1-2 (in red) at the far right.

Consequently, in the daily chart below the shot trend to wave X is up but then it should resume the  trend down to complete wave e on the weekly chart above.







The 4-hour chart below shows wave 1 (very right hand side) made only of 7 waves. Afetr a retracement down 1.03165 and then up again to 1.044 as a minimum.

Consequently, in the 4-hour chart below the trend is up to 1.044 to perform a 1-2-X. Then the downtrend should resume.






The 1-hour chart below show the 7 waves up that formed the retracements. It also shows that the Aussie completed 5 waves down. to 1.03221

 Consequently, in the 1-hour chart below the trend is up to 1.044 and then down to one of the possible targets; 1.016, 1.075, 1.035









Thursday, 21 June 2012

S&P 500, Thursday, June 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

Before getting into our usual analysis, let me answer to one of your questions.

----------------------------------------

I keep being asked about organising training seminars and webinars about my way to use Elliott Waves in everyday trading (and more). This what I do

TRADING SEMINARS

I organise large trading seminars (2.5 days - 5+5+3 hours) on a quarterly base in
  • Brisbane,
  • Gold Coast,
  • Sydney,
  • Melbourne,
  • Adelaide and
  • Perth.
I will take you to a practical way to trade through
  • a new way to master Elliott Waves and Entry Points.
  • a simple system to recognise Reversal Candlesticks and calculate Fibonacci Targets.
  • the right combination of Psycology of Trading
  • and Money Management.
  • A lot more.
This includes a lot of practical trading on a demo account and, when possible, on a live account.

TRADING WEBINARS

I'm also organising monthly webinars around the same topics. It can be on a one-to-one or on a collective base (up to 5 people).

Anyone interested please contact me at the numbers below.

Cheers. Mario. Organiser.
W: 02 800 34 618
M: 0405 233 578
E: info@fxtutors.com.au
Skype ID: mariodconti

----------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: S&P 500 started "The rally of the last leg up".

In the weekly chart below the S&P 500 completed wave 5.4 (out of 5 waves) and just started wave 5.5, which is the very last 5th wave up within the 5th wave of major grade. In few words: it's fifth of the fifth.

The 161.8% target calculated upon the range of wave 5.1 should take the index in the vicinity of 1,420, generating a double top as the last one topped at 1,418.

Only in the remote case of the Federal Reserve implementing a substantial QE3  there would be an extension of the wave 5.5 that would push the index to level 1,643. But this seems to be quite unlikely at this stage.






This is comfirmed by the daily chart below: see waves 5.5.1 and 5.5.2. Wave  5.5.3 in blue was able to breakout the channel and should be able to reach a minimum target of 1,387.







The 4hour chart below confirms this hypothesis: wave 4 touched the magenta channel. it's supposed bounce back and generate a rally to form wave 5. This would actually complete wave 5.5.3 of the daily chart (above)






Finally, see the 1hour chart below with wave 4 performing a 3-X-3 and touching the lower boundary of the channel. Unless a last minute surprise, it's supposed to rally from now on.

Note: the volatility around wave X was caused by Ben Bernanke announcing another round of  "Operation Twist" by $267 billion. The market mistakenly thought that the FED was injecting more liquidity. 

Instead, it will sell that amount of short-term securities to buy longer-term ones to keep long-term borrowing costs down. The program, which was due to expire this month, will now run through the end of the year.

That announcements caused a roller coaster of the market for about 3 hours.



Sunday, 17 June 2012

EURUSD, Monday, June 18, 2012

Euro: R.I.P. 2002-2012.


This could be the commemorative epitaph on the Euro tombstone as Greece's  could push the debt-ridden country out of the European single currency, rocking the Euro to its core and sowing turmoil in global financial markets.

But the Euro is a big animal. As of February 2012, with more than €890 billion in circulation, the Euro has the highest combined value of banknotes and coins in circulation in the world, having surpassed the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Technical Analysis seems to confirm that we might be at a reversal point, although anything can happen at this stage.



SITUATION

Check the monthly chart below. If the timing is right, we are completing the 131st month out of 144. This means that the "Euro Saga" might take till the end of July 2013 before coming to a solution. (or an end).

 

The new wave down might be a 5-X-5 (5-3-5 for the Ellott purists). Based on the Fibonacci Expansion calculation, the next target could be 1.1058 usd (100%).

 

Furthermore, if it performs a 5-3-9 it could go as far as 0.96 usd (expansion to 161.8%), considering that the historical low was around 0.8234 in Oct 2000 (Metatrader).

The very last green candlestick retraced exactly 38.2% of the long red one which could be a sign of weakness.

NOTE: this is dangerous stage as it's too early to ascertain the type of Elliott wave is unfolding. It could be a wave X up, signalling the start of a new downtrend or a wave 1 up which starts a new uptrend.

So please check carefully your entry point as there could be some creazy volatility.










The weekly chart below is the most interesting. It shows 2 Flag formations with a Gann Throw Over (see triangles) which are usually followed by panic downtrends.

 
Note that wave 5 retraced only 38.2% of the last downtrend and this is a sign of weakness. This level also coincides with an historical low which is acting now as a resistance.

 
The magenta channel was touched 5 times and it's now expected to breakout.


The top of the last wave X also coincide with the historical Supp/Res and the 38.2% retracement of the last downtrend.













 
The daily chart below which shows the completion of 3 waves down and 3 up (wave 1-2-X). The latter stopped right on the resistance level. This should be followed by some 5 or 9 waves down.










Further confirmations come from the 4hour chart below that shows a bearish Shooting Start a the end of the last wave up.

 




The 1hour chart below shows the completion of the very last 9 waves up and a reversal candlestick named Dark Cloud Cover. It looks a valid Turning Point. A channel breakout on the downside would confirm this hypotesis.

















Thursday, 14 June 2012

SPI200 (AU) vs US indices, Friday June 15, 2012

From positive to negative correlation?

Hi Traders,

Hard to believe for some of us but it looks that the correlation between the Aussie SPI200 and the US indices went from positive to negative.

To make it short, the S&P500 and DJ30 show the genuine will to complete the last  Elliott wave up whilst the SPI200 in Australia is set to reach a new low at 3700 (as a minimum target).

See the weekly chart of the S&P500 below where this index is set to complete the (very last) 5th wave up within the 5th wave of major grade.







And so does the DJ30 in the weekly chart below. This index too is set to complete the (very last) 5th wave up within the 5th wave of major grade







Instead, what happened to the SPI200 weekly below? It seems to be heading down to 3700 (as a minimum target)








See also the monthly chart of the SPI200 below for further confirmation of the target. Furthermore, this could take the Aussie index to the levels of 2001 and even below.








Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Hi Traders,

I couldn't wait to tell you that we just created a new MeetUp Group in Sydney about Option Trading.
Please click on "Sydney Option Traders"

Cheers. Mario

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

AUDUSD, Tuesday May 22, 2012

Hi Traders,

As predicted, the AUDUSD stopped  the downtrend at 0.98 USD as displayed in the monthly chart below. Theoretically, given the new temporary USD weakness against all currencies, we could see the Aussie very last rally to 1.0220-1.0450 and maybe to 1.0760 before starting the big downrend.

If this happens,it would complete "every wave 5" of major, medium and minor grade. See the 4 waves in white at the top right end of the chart.

As a confirmation we have the channel being touched 4 times, so we expect a small rally followed by a breakout to the downside







In the weekly chart below there's a bullish reversal candlestick formation called "the three crows" confirmed by the chart touching the channel at level 0.98 USD which is also a 61.8% retracement down of the last rally. From here we should start the very last wave 5 up.






The daily chart below shows the "engulfing" reversal candlestick and this confirms the level 1.0220 as possible tartget. The last wave down (C) was performed in 5 waves and should be finished.







Finally, the 4hour chart below shows the new trend direction and the possible tartget at 1.0220 (red line)






Monday, 21 May 2012

WTI OIL,Tuesday May 22, 2012

Hi Traders,

It's actually Monday night: I've been asked to check the WTI OIL and I found the task a bit hard.

After taking a bit dive to $35.50 from $147.50 in 2008, the commodity is sitting now at $92 which is exacly 50%  of that range.

As you can see by the weekly chart below the WTI performed 3 waves up, reaching $115 (wave 3). Now the question is: why 3 waves only and not 5? A plausible explanation could be that it's now unfolding "major retracement wave 4" (out 5 waves up).

In its simplest espression, "major retracement wave 4" is a big zig-zag made of 3 to 5 retracement waves. The OIL so far performed 2 of those retracement waves and now it's trying to complete wave 3 down.

On its way down, it stopped on the most important support. Hence, it might bounce back for a while (rally) before resuming the downtrend and breakout the channel on the downside.

If this happens, the target could be $97-$98.5. Then down again to $80. Also, the channel was touched 4 times and this prelude to a bounce back (rally) usually followed by a breakout on the downside.

This could be confirmed by the 3 red candles down that usually indicate a bullish reversal formation named "the ladder bottom".







The daily chart below confirms the wave count (1-2-3 in red). There might a attempt to reach a low around $91.67 as the last bit of the wave is still missing.








This is confirmed by the 4hour chart below which shows 8 waves out of 9, The 9th should be the last leg down and it usually shows a reversal candlestick (which is not there yet). The channel was touched 4 times and this is the prelude to a breakout.






The 1 hour chart below show the last le down missing (wave 5). It also dispays 4 contact point in the channel. hence there could be a breakout soon.







Note the last orange numbers 1-2-3 in the 15min chart below where the last wave 3 is still missing at level $91.67 or lower. That could be our reversal point.





Sunday, 20 May 2012

GBPUSD, Monday, May 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

Dealing with GBPUSD has never been an easy task as this currency is heavily traded by the smartest operators in the world, Bank of England included.

The Pounds dived to almost 1.35USD in Jan 2011 from over 2.11USD in Nov 2007. It barely recovered 50% of that loss (1.70USD)

Since then, it performed an oscillation around the 1.58USD fulcrum. We are still there now, in May 2012.

This time, given the temporary weakness of USD against GBP, Gold, WTI Oil, Euro and Aussie, there might be a chance for the last rally.


SITUATION

See the 4 sideways waves in the monthly chart below. Hence there could be the chance for a short rally of 5 waves up, whereas wave 1 and 2 (in turquoise) have already occured.






The currency touched 4 times the channel in the weekly chart below and it's supposed to breakout on the upside, unless it follows through the support at 1.5770 USD. 








This is confirmed by the daily chart below which shows a reversal candlestick (Hammer) right across the 50% support.  






The "Hammer" of the daily chart above is confirmed by the "Kicking"reversal pattern of the 4hour chart below. Also, note the completion of the Elliott pattern 5-X-3-X-5 (called 5-3-5 by Elliott) that formed wave 2.







The 1hour chart below shows the breakout of the channel on the upside and the targets of 1.5930 USD and maybe 1.6050 USD  







 Surprisingly, the 15 min chart below shows that the pair could move slightly down before starting the rally







 This is confirmed by the 5min chart below in which the Pound didn't reach the support at 1.5860- 1.58040 USD yet.