Sunday, 4 August 2013

AUDUSD, almost ready

Hi Traders,

As you see in the monthly the AUDUSD chart is right on target (area 0.8877-0.8770) but hold your horses as it's a dangerous situation.

Normally, 5 red candles down (daily chart) mean imminent reversal but I'not entirely sure that the downtrend is completely over.

After the new low, the 1-hour chart may display a short rally and then again a new short wave down to 0.8860.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The 1-hour chart shows 8 waves out of 9. Anyone who knows my method of counting waves is aware that whenever the wave count is too cryptical I use the "count to nine" which is equivalent to counting 5 waves".

In this case "wave 9" isn't finished yet and it might take the AUDUSD to 0.8860.

The new low will mark the end of wave 3 (1-hour chart) followed by a  retracement upwards which constitutes wave 4 and, finally, by the last wave down (wave 5).

NOTE: if it doesn't get much below 0.8765 it might be the end of the line and a major rebound would start very soon with a possible target to 0.9580.

W.O.

The wave oscillator in the second 4-hour chart (there are two) displays an exit signal (of your short) but the W.O. in the second daily chart (there are two) doesn't.

Depending to the one you're you are using for your trading, you exit (1-hour) or stay (daily) in your short position.

With the Wave Oscillator, the exit signal is given by a "cross back" and a subsequent significant divergence (in terms of distance) between the tips of the red lines.

ie: the entry point is given when the red lines cross, the exit point is given when the red lines both cross back and then diverge significantly. 

See below the wave oscillator's charts (applied daily and 4-hour charts).


monthly chart: click to enlarge


weekly chart: click to enlarge


daily chart: click to enlarge


 wave oscillator applied to the daily chart: click to enlarge



4-hour chart: click to enlarge



wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart: click to enlarge



1-hour chart: click to enlarge




Thursday, 1 August 2013

EURUSD reversal, as i said

Hi Traders,

I said on Monday that a reversal was going to start soon and ... here we are. All the rest unchanged.


TARGETS:

likely: 1.32057
possibly: area 1.3159-1.3147
maybe: area 1.2992-1.2975

ELLIOTT WAVES

Monthly Chart
After the top in "d" we expect a trend of 5 waves downwards, being wave 1(down) and wave 2 (up) already in place + wave 3 (down) in its infancy.
Weekly Chart
The above is confirmed by the weekly chart: the "3 soldiers candlestick"  should be followed by a downtrend.
Daily Chart + Wave Oscillator (daily)
See the wave 1 and 2 in red. Volume should pick up soon. There's an exit  signal in the wave oscillator (daily) yet.
4 hour Chart + Wave Oscillator (4-hour)
See the 5 waves up and the 3 soldiers down that should be followed by a small uptrend. 
Note the last wave split in 5 minor waves itself. The wave oscillator shows the early stages of a reversal signal.



monthly chart, click to enlarge




weekly chart, click to enlarge




daily chart, click to enlarge




wave oscillator in daily chart, click to enlarge




4-hour chart, click to enlarge




wave oscillator in 4-hour chart, click to enlarge




1-hour chart, click to enlarge




wave oscillator 1-hour chart, click to enlarge




























SPI200, time turning point

Hi Traders,

The SPI200 has reached its Time Turning Point which was scheduled for today (see vertical lines in he daily chart). If this analysis is correct, next leg with be downwards.

ELLIOTT WAVES

As I said on May 28th, the SPI200 is performing a Zig-Zag (daily chart) made of 3 or  even 5 waves.

We've now completed wave 1 (downwards) as well  wave 2 (upwards) of what it seems to be a typical 1-2-3 retracement wave (see daily chart).

TARGETS

likely: area 4600-4581
possible: 4455
maybe: 4320



monthly chart - click to enlarge




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge




 4-hour chart - click to enlarge





 1-hour chart - click to enlarge





Monday, 29 July 2013

EURUSD: reversal?

Hi Traders,

If the EURUSD stays below the resistance area at 1.3300-1.3336 there's a good chance of an imminent reversal. If this analysis is correct, the current value (1.3280) could be the perfect entry point for a long downtrend.

TARGETS:

likely: 1.32057
possibly: area 1.3159-1.3147
maybe: area 1.2992-1.2975

ELLIOTT WAVES

Monthly Chart
After the top in "d" we expect a trend of 5 waves downwards, being wave 1(down) and wave 2 (up) already in place + wave 3 (down) in its infancy.
Weekly Chart
The above is confirmed by the weekly chart: the "3 soldiers candlestick"  should be followed by a downtrend.
Daily Chart + Wave Oscillator (daily)
See the wave 1 and 2 in red. Volume should pick up soon. No reversal signal in the wave oscillator (daily) yet.
4 hour Chart + Wave Oscillator (4-hour)
See the 5 waves up. Note the last wave split in 5 minor waves itself. The wave oscillator shows the early stages of an exit signal to the ongoing uptrend.
1 hour Chart + Wave Oscillator (1-hour)
See the last waves up in the 1-hour chart. The wave oscillator (1-hour) shows a reversal already.


monthly chart - click to enlarge



weekly chart - click to enlarge



daily chart - click to enlarge



wave osc. on a chart - click to enlarge



4-hour chart - click to enlarge



wave osc. on a 4-hour chart - click to enlarge



1-hour chart - click to enlarge



wave osc. on 1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Sunday, 28 July 2013

SPI200, a Zig Zag

Hi Traders,

As I said on May 28th, the SPI200 is performing a Zig-Zag made of 3 or 5 waves. We've now completed wave 1 (downwards) as well  wave 2 (upwards) of what it seems to be a typical 1-2-3 retracement wave (see daily chart). If this analysis is correct we will see another leg down.

TARGETS

likely: area 4600-4581
possible: 4455
maybe: 4320

monthly chart - click to enlarge



weekly chart - click to enlarge




daily chart - click to enlarge


  

 4-hour chart - click to enlarge




1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Friday, 26 July 2013

OIL reversing?

Hi Traders,

WTI Oil (now at 104.53) seems to be heading South having completed a full set of Elliott Waves up to 108.89.

At present the monthly and weekly charts show a significant breakout of a symmetric triangle to the upside, meaning the start of a new uptrend followed by a retracement (wave 1 & 2).

At present, this reversal (wave 2) is confirmed by some nice reversal candlesticks in both the weekly and daily charts.

Only in case this reversal is not limited to a mere retracement, the entire Elliott configuration would have to be redrawn.

TARGETS

likely: area 103.36-103.73
possibly: area 101.75-102.05
maybe: area 100.62-100.80

ELLIOTT WAVES

The waves in the monthly and weekly charts is depicted an "a-b-c" followed by  wave "1" which is the first wave upwards of a new uptrend. The retracement (wave 2) could go as far as 97.60 if the USD strengthens a bit.



monthly chart, click to enlarge



weekly chart, click to enlarge



daily chart, click to enlarge




 4-hour chart, click to enlarge



Wednesday, 24 July 2013

S&P 500. End of the line?

Hi Traders,

The S&P 500 is reaching some important cornerstones:

  • it entered the area 1690-1730, a target established long time ago
  • it almost reached a Gann Time Turning point (on a daily chart)
  • it almost completed the so called "5the of the 5th of the 5th"
If this analysis is correct (please compare with your own analysis) the S&P 500 might start a major correction, possibly within 2-4 trading days.

TARGETS:

up to the area 1690-1730 first
then
down to 1596 first, then 1530 and well below


ENTRY POINT
  • wait for the reversal candlestick in the 4-hour chart and in the daily chart
  • wait  for the 'wave oscillator' in 4-hour chart to give you a confirmation.
  • possibly, wait for the awesome oscillator to confirm as well.
ELLIOTT WAVES

Note - in the weekly chart below - the S&P500 almost completed the so called "5th of the 5th of the 5th"

GANN

Note the "Gann Grid" - in the daily chart - showing July 26th (in US time frame)




weekly chart, click to enlarge





daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





 1-hour chart, click to enlarge



AUDUSD, forming the 5th leg down

Hi Traders,

If the AUDUSD stops below 0.9322 (as it seems) this would cause the currency to test again the previous low and move even lower.

TARGETS:

likely: 0.8997
possible: 0.8877
maybe: 0.8578

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that the 5fh wave down is still missing. In the 4-hour and 1-hour chart the AUD seems on the way down to complete wave 5.


monthly chart, click to enlarge



weekly chart, click to enlarge



daily chart, click to enlarge




4-hour chart, click to enlarge




1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Thursday, 18 July 2013

EURUSD, showdown

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD failed to go through the major resistance at 1.32 and completed a 2-step pattern (1-2-3 upwards) as expected. If this analysis is correct the currency pair has exhausted its upwards energy and should start a downtrend.

TARGETS

likely: 1.2998 and the area 1.29923-1.29750
possibly: 1.28755 and 1.2818
maybe: area 1.2742-1.2754
medium term: area 1.2406-1.2389

ENTRY POINT

Don't entry unless the "Wave Oscillators" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart show "permission to entry". Possibly, seek a confirmation from the Awesome oscillator in both time frames.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the a-b-c-d should be followed by "wave e" a long way downwards, especially in case of breakout of the major supports at 1.24 and 1.19.

The weekly chart shows that after the top at 5d the EURUSD started 5 major waves downwards, wave 1 and 2 (in magenta) already in place and wave 3 starting on.

The daily chart  confirms that after the top at 32 we also have 2 waves down and wave 3 just started.

The 4-hour chart shows the last top at 32 and that a wave downwards just started

NOTE: in the 4-hour chart that shows only the "wave oscillator" we have some "Top Cusps" showing a moderate reversal. However, the red lines are not touching yet or not close enough to give you "the go". Furthermore, the Awesome oscillator is not down to zero yet.



monthly chart, click to enlarge




 daily chart, click to enlarge




daily chart, click to enlarge




daily chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge




 1-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge