Thursday 1 November 2012

FT100, Thursday Nov 1, 2012

Hi Traders,

If my wave count is right the FT100 has lost the last chance to over around the 5,700 area and it's heading south.

The monthly chart below (sorry, i don't have much history) shows the completion of 5 waves up and the 1-2-3-4 in red. Note the log shadows in the last 3 candles, clearly a sign of weakness.


Check the weekly chart below. The FT100 reached the top level 4-5 times but shows great weakness . Check the red Displaced MA (DiNapoli). It shows a Double Repo, meaning that it's quite bearish.


The daily chart below shows the completion of 5 waves up, wave 1 and 2 in red and a breakout. Time to take your short position. It also shows a double top made of wave 5 and wave 2.


In the 4-hour chart below there's a reversal candlestick (4) within a down channel that has been touched 5 times


The 1-hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 out of 5. Good entry point.

Tuesday 30 October 2012

S&P500, Tuesday OCT 30, 2012

Hi Traders,

I've been asked whether I'm still bullish on S&P500. I do, and I'm still in, although I've been stopped out twice in a row and I'm dangerously close to my stop loss.

It's not stubbornness. I just reviewed my analysis and it doesn't seem to be wrong.

I suggest to go straight to the 1-hour chart to see the double bottom. More urgently, check the 15 min chart to see the Candlestick reversal and the perfect entry point.


Basically nothing has changed as you can see in the weely chart below. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.

Possible targets: 1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.
Also, what's going to be the effect of the incoming election on S&P500

In the daily chart below the S&P500 touches the magenta channel for the 4th time. Although I don't see a candlestick reversal I see a lot of doji candles, meaning that
  • there's not market (hurricane Sandy)
  • there's no apparent intention to go down 
BUT ...

The Elliott wave's count in the 4-hour chart below shows the completion of 5 waves down, a nice double bottom and a candlestick reversal (bottom right).

In the 1-hour chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down and a Stochastic positive divergence.

In the 15-min chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down, a nice reversal candlestick and the new waves 1 and 2, the latter being the perfect entry point.

Thursday 25 October 2012

S&P500, Thursday Oct 25, 2012

Hi Traders,
On Sunday I said ... unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500 ... Well, the extended wave actually showed up. If this is true, it's now the time to reverse to bullish.
The Elliott Wave count is now slightly different as you can see in the weely chart below. The last two waves (top right of the chart) have been renamed 3 and 4. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.
Possible targets:  1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.


The daily chart below shows that the last wave 4 unfolded in a Zig-Zag made of 5 waves. It also shows that the absolute top was nothing more then the top of the extended wave 3.

The 4-hour chart below shows the 5 waves down forming the big pattern of the above mentioned  wave 4. Note the double bottom formation (bottom right). Note also the channel being touched 4 times. All of these being evidence of a reversal.

The channel in the 1-hour chart below show 4 contact points followed, as usual, by a bullish breakout.

The 15min chart below that shows the breakout is, at present, made out of 3 waves up (out of 5)


Wednesday 24 October 2012

OIL WTI, Wednesday Oct 24, 2012

Hi Traders,

Timing seems to be a serious matter for WTI Oil.

Since the Dec 2008 low around $36, the WTI futures started a new uptrend with 3 major waves up to $115 in Apr 2011.

It took 120 weeks precisely from low to top. See monthy chart below.

Then it moved sideways for 60 weeks precisely from top to low. Remarkable!

Now, all this moving sideways usually indicates a major wave 4 in formation, which should perform an  a-b-c-d-e, meaning a zig-zag with 5 legs.

If this is true we just started the last 5 waves down that constitute the wave "e" (see "5d" on the far right).

Tartget: $84.75 - as a minimum - and another likely target in the area $80.10-$78.50.

Furhermore: some say that it must go back to $70 (the lower blue line) before starting the last uptrend. This is actually a real chance but I don't have enough elements to confirm it. It's just an eventuality that I don't discard.


Note the daily chart below. After major wave 2 (in red, touching the red  horizontal line) a new downtrend started over. We should see of 5  waves down, where 1 and 2 - in red - are already in place. 

Very important: we're hovering over $87 right now, which is a very major support.

It should bounce back on the support and then go through. Use this retracement as an entry point. Check your own 1hour-15min chart for the best entry.


The 4-hour chart below shows a strong resistance at $93.62 (red horizontal line) and 4 waves down. The top of wave 4 is a good entry for a short.


Also, the 1-hour chart below indicated that wave 4 up (bottom right) is not complete yet. As the blue horizontal line is a confluence (K) of  Fib-nodes, it might be your entry point and also the top of wave 4.

Sunday 21 October 2012

SPI200, Sunday OCT 21, 2012

Hi Traders,
The SPI200 seems to have reached the very top with a much expected two-step-pattern. I don't see any other way but downward.
If the Elliott Wave count is right - see the monthly chart below - we just started 5 waves down with a minimum target at 3700. Volatility could be quite high at this stage and so the amplitude of this wave down.
Hence, shortening the SPI200 now might result in a very profitable trade.  
As you see in the weekly  chart below we've reached the top target expected between 4,564 and 4,583 in 5 waves up.
The fact that we've reached the top of the wave up is confirmed by the candlestick reversal (top right) in the daily chart below.
The 4-hour chart below shows a three-soldiers pattern which is usually a prelude to a retracement. If a little retracement occurs, that would be the perfect entry point.

S&P500, Sunday OCT 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

Unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500, and for the long run. Expect a lot of volativity. Hence, be careful about the entry point as there could be a little retracement up on Monday (see 4-hour chart).


The S&P500 in the weekly chart below has completed 5 waves up from the minimum in March 2009. If the wave count is right we're aiming for 1090-1012 as a minimum


The daily chart below shows that the last wave up was an extended wave (see 555 - top right) followed by a 1-2-3-4 sideways in red. From now on the downtrend could be faster. 

The 4-hour chart below shows a candlestick reversal at 555 (top left) and another cadlestick reversal at 32 (top centre in blue and red). After the big slump (on the right) there could be a retracement. Then the downtrebd should resume.


Saturday 20 October 2012

USDJPY, Sat Oct 20, 2012

Hi Traders,
USDJPY, now at 79.27, moved exactly as predicted.
The uptrend is likely to continue for very long time although this week we will probably see a minor downtrend (see 4-hour and 1-hour  charts below) due to the unfolding of minor wave 4, which is usually a Zig-Zag to the downside. This action should take 1-3 days, then the uptrend should resume.
In the monthly chart below the currency pair has performed a breakout of the magenta channel. Minimum target at 94.00 (horizontal blue line). 
We're also plenty of secondary targets/resistances: 85.13, 88.98, 94.00, 98.94, 102.00 and 105.36, the ones in bold more interesting.
This situation is confirmed by the weekly chart below which shows the completion of wave 1 and 2 in blue, the latter completing 5 waves down. The chart aims now to a target of 85.13 

Having completed wave 1 and 2, the USDJPY is now working to complete wave 3 in 5 waves of a minor grade down (in royal blues and smaller font). More exactly, 3 of these 5 minor grade waves are now completed as in the daily chart below.
The next is wave 4 and it's a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves.
The 4-hour chart below shows the completion of wave 3 of a minor grade. This will be followed by wave 4 in a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves down. Targets at 78.86 but also at 78.66 and 78.55.

Finally the 1-hour chart below shows that, after completeng wave 3 up (in blue large font), we've done wave 1 (in magenta) sideways.
From now on the USDJPY will retrace down to 78.9 and 78.66 (blue horizontal line). Expect other 3 waves down. 

Sunday 14 October 2012

USDJPY, Sunday OCT 14, 2012

 Hi Traders,
USDJPY Analysis.

To fully understand this analysis we need to check the USDJPY history. The chart below shows that the USDJPY was fixed at 360 Yen per US Dollar in 1949 till 1971.

This was followed by a 41 years drop till level 74-75 yen for a green back in recent times.

The chart shows that we completed 5 major waves down in Feb 2012. The end of the downtrend is confirmed by the last major wave (5) being sub-divided in 5 waves itself.

The chart below suggest that the first major resistance is around level USDJPY 101.00. Let's see weather this is true (next set of charts).


We have the chance of the best entry point for USDJPY. The Monthly chart below show the completion of the very last wave down and the start of the new uptrend with wave 1 and 2 in blue. The bottom of this little wave 2 is the very best entry point.

The weekly chart below show the completion of wave 1 and 2 up, the latter unfolded in 5 waves down.

And so the daily chart below. Note the very little ripples in blue at the bottom right hand side. Wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8): this is the very best entry point.

Once again:  the 4hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8). This is the very best entry point!

Finally, the 1hour chart below indicates that the very last retracement wave 2 unfolded in 5 waves down but showed no real intention to retrace much.

AUDUSD, Sunday Oct 14, 2012

Hi Traders,
From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.
To start, let me recall that:
  • In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
  • On Sep 9, 1973 it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
  • On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
  • On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.
I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing an a-b-c-d-e slightly down and then up

i.e: the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Consequently there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141", top-right of the monthly chart).
If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).
April 8-9 2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.
Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.
  • Apr 2001 (Low) - Feb 2005 (top), 47 month
  • Mar 2005 (Top) - Dec 2008 (low), 47 month
  • Jan 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).
If this is true, minor wave 5 up might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).


By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.


The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in Dec 2012).
This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).
Wave a-b-c-d are completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition.
This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).
Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.
Once again, we completed wave 1, 2 ,3 and 4 - major grade - from April 2001.
Major wave 5 - which can be broken in 5 waves itself - is now completing wave  4 (of 5) with an a-b-c-d-e, as in the top right hand corner of the monthly chart below.


Note wave 4 enfolding with an a-b-c-d-e in the weekly chart below and note also the double top made out of "d" and number "2". This is the start of leg "e" enfolding in five waves down.
Nice reversal candles at the top of wave "d" and wave "2". Possible tartget around 0.96, then reversal up again to a possible target around 1.12.

Note the double top of the daily chart below. It's made out of wave "d" and wave "2". Note also that the previous uptrend in the blue channel was a "two step pattern", ie: 1,2 and 3 only, which is typical of a retracement wave like wave d.

Nice reversal candles at the end of wave "c", wave "d",  wave "1" and wave 2.

Below in the 4hour chart you see wave 1-2-3-4 and 5 down in the magenta channel followed by a retracement up in 5 waves ending in a double top and two remarcable reversal patterns. Note that the retracement didn't even reach level 38%, definetively a sign of weakness.

Wave 4 in the 1hour chart below enfolds in 5 waves up and 1-2-3 down. The chart is now pushing a zig-zag up (wave 4) and then the 5th wave down. But ... keep focussed! All this is only part of wave 3 down of a major grade! (see weekly chart)

Sunday 23 September 2012

S&P 500, Sunday, September 23, 2012

Hi Traders,
 Is it time for a major turnaround in S&P500? Well, it's the Gann Day! (check the Barrons article). It's the day pinpointed by W. D. Gann when markets are more likely to reverse than any other day of the year.
This time, unless the S&P500 performs another extended wave up (it's possible), it could be the one of the major turnaround of the last 5 years. Hence, please take a moment to read this short analysis down to the 5-min chart.
Just a quick note: I will run a Trading Course in Melbourne about Elliott Waves, Candlesticks and Fibonacci, on Sat Oct 13 and Sun Oct 14 in Melbourne.

For further info please contact me at

W: +61(0)2 8003 4618
M: +61(0)405 233 578

Skype ID: mariodconti
The magenta channel in the the weekly chart below was touched 5 times (see ellipses). We just need 4 to confirm that, at the end of this impulse wave up there could be a breakout on the downside.
The Elliott Waves 5.5.5 - on top right - reveal the very end of every major and minor cycle altogether. In addition, the Stochastic is  performing a weekly divergence down.

Now, when labelling Elliott Waves gets really too complicated, I label all waves up to 9 (or even 13) although, this is just another way to indicate a 5 wave trend (up).
The waves in the daily chart below were labelled up to 9, the latter still to be completed.
Moreover, wave 9 was further subdivided in 5 tiny waves (labelled in a small green font). Still, almost completed.
Note that, unless another extention starts over, this wave needs only a very tiny  wave up to reach the very top and reverse a really major uptrend.
In few words, we need to monitor the start of the last wave up to get in position for our major reversal.
The fact that time is running out for this ongoing trend is confirmed by the 4-hour chart below touching the channel boundaries 4 times. This is how a wave 5 usually unfolds.
Fibonacci calculations show a possible target in the area 1492-1494.5 (red lines at the very top).
The retracement wave (wave 4) in the 1-hour chart below was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.
The blue line in the middle of the 1-hour chart below was the expected target of wave 2 (middle chart, extreme right) before re-starting the uptrend. with waves 3, 4 and 5.
The Fibonacci measurements of the 1-hour chart below show some more targets: 1468-1469, 1483-1485 and 1507-1509.


The 15-min chart below testifies the completion of wave 2 - in blue, centre right. This retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.
It's now ready to shoot up with waves 3, 4 and 5.

In the 5-min chart below the retracement wave (wave 2) was supposed to touch the channel only 3 times, as it happened.

It's now ready for the last 3 tiny ripples up before starting the  reversal.