Wednesday, 8 May 2013

WTI OIL, time for long

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.54 - seems to be ready for a nice rally, up enough for a good trade.


TARGETS:


Likely: 97.50-98.00

Possible: 100.30-100.90
Maybe: 103.5-104

SETUP: 


In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves (sideways) and its now ready for the 5th one up.









The daily chart below shows that the Oil bounced back from the top trend line 3 times and it's now hovering there once again. This is an indication that there's fair enough energy for the new uptrend.

However - even in the likely event that it pulls back to the area 94.83-94.56 (quite possible) - the commodity should start the new uptrend soon.





Expect the first target in the area 97.50-98.00 to complete wave 3 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below.

Then again, a new pullback named "wave 4" will take place, followed by the last rally (possibly) to the area at 100.30-100.90

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area at 94.83-94.56. Hence, don't get into this trade straight away.





Tuesday, 7 May 2013

EURUSD, time's running out

Hi Traders,

As in the weekly chart below, the Euro - now at 1.3078-79 - is moving  quite precisely with a cycle of top and lows every 34-36 weeks. Although the next 34 weeks cycle will come to an end next week, the Euro seems on the way down already.

Trading sessions in the 1-hour chart showed traders taking both sides quite equally in the previous 3 days and this might be a clue of the market shifting from bullish to bearish.

Moreover, the top at 1.32431 didn't go much further then previous top at 1.32011 forming a sort of double top.

However, a short rally to $1.3094-1.31 might still occur before starting the new  downtrend.










ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 downward to 1.2039 followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).

If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.











Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.



Here are the targets as in the daily chart above

Likely: the area between 1.2990 and 1.2966
Possible: 1.298
Maybe: the area between 1.2779 and 1.2748











Monday, 6 May 2013

AUDUSD, Targets & Timing


Hi Traders,

AUDUSD started a violent downtrend as I predicted last week. The Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in the weekly chart) and it's performing wave "e" downwards in 5 waves. (starting from the top in d5), We now performing  wave 3 (out of 5) as in the daily chart.

The Gann timing suggest that the 5 waves could be completed by May 17-20.

As I said, this "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes (more waves down) and could take the pair below the parity.


FUNDAMENTAL REASONS

The Budget Deficit is out of control.
The government is might increase the taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion.
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further.

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present downtrend started at 1.03845 with wave 3 (of 5). Although there is a reversal candlestick (engulfing pattern) in the daily chart, the "three soldiers" in the 4-hour chart warn of a possible rebound in the area 1.022 to 1.0265 or higher.

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: 1.0010,  1.000,
Possible: 0.9904, 0.9822
Maybe: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000



weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge







Wednesday, 1 May 2013

Time Analysis of S&P500, Tuesday May 01, 2013

Hi Traders,

Working on the timing side with Gann and Elliott together takes quite a bit of time but the outcome is amazing!

According to W.D.Gann a trend is "balanced out" when moving along a 45 degrees line, meaning that a "time unit" (a day) must be equal to a "price unit".

Alright. A time unit is "one day" but ... how many index points is a price unit in the S&P500?

I calculated (I might be wrong) that every 36 TRADING days the S&P500 should climb 118.16 points to be on a 45 degree line, meaning 3.2822 points/day which is our "price unit".

Now, check the daily chart below as I found out that, from early June 2012, the S&P500 futures recorded highs and lows every 36 days with a Swiss watch precision!

Furthermore, by combining Elliott Waves and Gann Timing you get a projection of a "possible" calendar day for the next incoming High/Low which should comes to Friday May 24 or Monday May 27, US East Coast Standard Time (a day ahead for Australia).

NOTE: I said High/Low, meaning that can be either one. I can only specify the calendar date.

Finally, take all this with a "pinch of salt" and, please, give me some feedback, included any negative "honest/competent" opinion.

PS: I've repeated this analysis with the SPI200: the new High/Low comes a trading day later.


click to enlarge



For the SPI200 below calculations where a bit more complicated but with the same similar (timing) Swiss precision and outcome, so I won't comment any further.

You may want to contact me for a quick chat. In meantime, check the daily chart below and the weekly chart further down which confirms the same calendar date. 


 click to enlarge



Below the weekly chart of the SPI200


 click to enlarge

Tuesday, 30 April 2013

AUDUSD collapsing? Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Hi Traders,

Is the AUDUSD on the verge of starting a new downtrend?  If this analysis is correct  the Aussie has completed an "a-b-c-d" and it's ready for wave "e" downwards.

But this time there's something that worries me: the downtrend could be quite swift and the amplitude of the "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes.

FUNDAMENTALS

The Budget Deficit is out of control
The government is going to increase taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present rally could soon end by approaching the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366. Then, a new downtrend might follow

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000


SITUATION

The Aussie at 1.0336 is now below the bunch of "displaced" moving averages (see weekly chart below) sitting together within a very narrow range. This usually happens just before the tempest.



click to enlarge




The  daily chart below shows a reversal candlestick in 5D and an unusual spike in the "volume of trades". Note: Even in case the currency pair reaches 1.040-1.0414 it will still be in bearish territory.


click to enlarge



The inverted Head & Shoulder in the 4-hour chart below may be stopped by the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366 or at 1.0385.


click to enlarge



See the 1-2-3 below (two-step pattern) in the 1-hour chart that could potentially stop the pair and point "3" (in blue).

Note the reversal engulfing pattern at point "3" and the "wave oscillator" alerting to exit the long position (black vertical line)


click to enlarge







Monday, 29 April 2013

USDJPY, Monday, April 29, 2013

Hi Traders,

Markets never stops to surprising me. I thought the USDJPY was going to hit 101.3 but it didn't. If what I see is a real double top, it's time for a downtrend.

SITUATION

USDJPY seems to have completed 5 waves up at 99.944 and needs to recharge for sometimes by implementing a downtrend with 3-5 major waves down. See the 5 waves up in the weekly chart below.






A double top in the daily charts is now casting dark clouds on the currency pair as in the daily chart below.






See the double top in 4-hour chart below and targets/supports in the area 97.22-97.14 and 96.32-96.19






Now check the entry/exit points of the "wave oscillator" in the same 4-hour chart: 

  • the blue lines are the entry points for a long
  • the red lines are the entry points for a short
  • the black vertical lines are exit point for both trades
See the last red line (right end) showing the short? There's no exit yet.  







EURGBP, Monday April 29, 2013

Hi Traders

SITUATION of EURGBP:

Although the currency pair started now a minor rally to a possible target in the area 0.8463-08473, the down trend will then resume to the area 0.8377-0.8366 and maybe 0.8275-0.8259

SETUP

We  need 5 major waves down to take the pound to 0.7765 in the monthly chart below. 4 of them are in place already (in magenta) and the 5th one is on its way to unfold from point 4 downward. 



click to enlarge



The weekly chart below shows the 4 waves (in magenta) and the start of the last major wave down (wave 5) with a nice 1-2 (in black)


click to enlarge






See the targets in the area 0.8377-0.8366 and 0.8275-0.8259 in the daily chart below 



click to enlarge



And so the target at 0.8473-0.8463 in 4-hour chart below. Note that this minor rally enfolding now is due to the development of minor wave 4 up. See the waves 1-2-3 in black


click to enlarge



Finally, see the "Wave Oscillator" in the 1-hour chart below with faded candles to better show the dynamics of the oscillator which shows a double bottom and the 2 black lines getting together to indicate the start of the new rally.


click to enlarge 

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

GOLD, Tuesday April 23, 2013

Hi Traders,

Gold - at 1,415 right now - might be set for another dive

TARGET: 1372, the area 1333-1321 and possibly 1267

SETUP: in the daily chart below Gold is performing wave 7 downward out of 9. Wave 7 is unfolding, in turn, in 5 waves, 4 of them already in place. The last one (downward) is starting right now. See below wave 4 (in green)



  



The start of the new downtrend is confirmed by the bearish candlestick - see just under 3 (in green) and 4(in black), in the 4-hours chart below -  appearing just after wave 4 (in black): this a typical reversal called "breakway" pattern.






Finally, see the 1-hour chart below, which shows the continuation pattern within the channel which usually develops in 3 waves up (only).




ENTRY: the red lines of the "wave oscillator" - in the 1-hour chart - converged enough to indicate a good entry for a short. If you are not in already, there should be another chance for a short around 1416-17 in the 15min chart

Thursday, 11 April 2013

USDJPY, Thursday Apr 11, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Japanese Yen is heading to the area 101.3/101.65 and beyond, as I indicated so many times in my posts since January 2012.

A BIT OF HISTORY

Not many traders know that the USDJPY rate was fixed at ¥360 in 1949. Since then it climbed relentlessly to ¥75 in Feb 2012.

It showed some weakness only in case of OIL Shock (and subsequent Trade Deficit) and when the Asset Price Bubble burst, as it occurred in February 2002, when it reached the low at ¥134.8.

That is to say that that low at ¥134.8 could be once again a possible target.
 
Other Fib Nodes: ¥105.39, 112.12, 118.4, 123.2, 128.7, 134.8
 
SITUATION
 
Although there's no sign of trend reversal or weakness yet, the ¥ could take a break after reaching ¥101.3/65 or higher and start a large ABC retracement within the weekly chart.
 
SET UP
 
The Elliott Waves in the 4 hour chart show the completion of 3 waves up (out of 5). The subsequent wave 4 should retrace a bit downwards (maybe to ¥98.6). Then Wave 5 should get the currency to ¥101.3/65.
 
ENTRY POINT
 
If this happens, wave 4 should unfold with an ABC or even an ABCDE down, in the 1 hour chart. This low could be a good entry point. 

Assuming that you want to take advantage of the last rally to 101.3/65 or higher, this Entry Point for your long position should be identified through your 15 min and 5 min charts.

The low will show up at the  end of an ABC or ABCDE and should be confirmed by a strong reversal candlestick accompanied by the sign of a trend reversal in the Wave Oscillator (similar to Bollinger Bands).

If you don't know how to use the very new Wave Oscillator feel free to ask.
 
Below the charts
 
Monthly chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
Weekly chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
Daily chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
4-hour chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
 1-hour chart: click to enlarge 
 

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Major Indices, Wednesday April 10, 2013

Hi Traders,

Before starting:
  • I suspended our Free Webinars for a while
  • Our Newsletter will carry on as usual
  • I'm looking for a new challenge and business to associate with: if  anyone has a business proposition please write at info(at)fxtutors.com.au or call me at +61 405 233 578.

SETUP:

This is a comparison between 6 Stock Indices by using their Daily Charts.

SITUATION:

There's usually some correlation between indices but this time this relationship seem to be broken.

Although each chart shows that we're completing MAJOR wave 5 (upward) it's interesting to notice that:
  • The European Indices (CAC40, DAX30 and FT100) seem to have completed 4 MINOR waves up (our of 5) and they're starting the last one up.
  • The US Index DJ30 seems have completed only 3 minor waves up it might start minor wave 4 (down).
  • The US Index S&P500 seem have completed 4 minor waves up and it's almost done with minor wave 5 up as well
  • The Australian SPI200 seems to have completed all minor and major 5 waves up already. It has also completed retracement wave A (downward) and it's staging the new retracement wave B upward.
 CONCLUSION:

 If we take this thesis for good:
  • In Europe the indices might try to make a double top or a new top
  • The S&P500 is almost at the top
  • The SPI 200 is doing a sort of double top or lower
  • DJ30 might actually touch/broke the upper line of the channel and then retreat considerably

 TRADING:

The dividend season is approaching in Australia and I wouldn't enter the market now. After completing wave B (upward) the Index SPI200 might stage a considerable dip. that could actually be a good short.

The S&P500  might be close to the very top.

DJ30 seems to have stage an overextended minor wave 3 and could stage a retracement (minor wave 4).

As the trading risk is getting too high  it might not be worth it till we see more clarity.

This time I'll give it a miss till I see some good signs of reversal.


click to enlarge
 
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