Thursday, 8 January 2015

WTI OIL bottoming soon

Hi Traders, Happy 2015!

The WTI OIL (now at $48.81) is performing a small rebound to $50-$52 before resuming the downtrend to the support area at $45-$42.

After reaching the new low, it should start a long trading range (months) with a top around $69-$70.

TARGETS:

first up to:
likely:$50.20-$50.29
possibly: $51.27-$51.75

then down to:
likely: $45.34-$44.65
possibly: $43.14-$42.04

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that wave 3 (in magenta) will be fully shaped only by reaching the target down to $45-$42. This will be followed by wave 4, an "a-b-c-d-e wave" that might take few months to reach the top at $69-$70.

The fact that wave 3 is not finished (weekly chart) is revealed in the 4-hour chart where wave 5 downwards still requires the small waves 4 and 5 (in green, font 8) to enfold and fully complete the pattern.

The 1-hour chart also confirms the same ongoing rebound (wave 4) that should lead up to the area around $50-$52 (wave 4). This wave will be followed by wave 5 down to the area $45-$42.

The completion of these 5 little waves in the 1-hour chart will complete wave 3 in the weekly chart.

All of this (1-hour chart) is likely to occur within a week or two.



weekly chart. click to enlarge






daily chart. click to enlarge






4-hour chart. click to enlarge






1-hour chart. click to enlarge

Monday, 24 November 2014

The Swiss referendum on Gold

Hi Traders,

Please read about Swiss referendum on gold reserves. Very interesting.
http://snbchf.com/2014/09/ron-paul-swiss-gold-referendum/

If the Swiss people see this "gold-guaranteed-Switzerland" as a good business, they will go for it.

Besides, there's a precedent that speaks out loudly: since 1968, Switzerland enormously treasured from the world inflation by getting a huge capital inflow that lasted decades.

This in turn, generated more wealth management for the banks and a lot more business for the country. 

This is a clear signal to the world that Switzerland is getting ready for the upcoming inflation and it's back into the good old role of "safe banking heaven" as usual.

Switzerland surprised me many times and may do it again, especially after the ongoing Real Estate Bubble caused by the peg to Euro.

Finally, as I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19,  the 21 European Central Banks stopped selling Gold

So, who is still selling Gold right now? Well, buckle up: volatility is coming soon.

Mario D. Conti



Monday, 17 November 2014

WTI OIL very last dive

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL (now at 75.00) is very close to the ultimate support around 72.40. I believe that the downtrend is very close to the end of the line. Expect strong volatility as the new uptrends starts over.

TARGETS

First down to the area around 72.40
then up to the area 85.46-85.88 (see daily chart)

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the a-b-c-d-e will be completed soon by reaching the area around 72.40 where a new uptrend should start shortly.

The 4-hour and 1-hour chart are clearly sounding the bell as OIL is staging the very last sub-minuette wave down to the target.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Tuesday, 11 November 2014

NATURAL GAS NEW UPTREND

Hi Traders,

As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.

Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.

TARGETS

likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38

ELLIOTT WAVES

Wave 2 in the 4-hour chart stopped right in the middle of wave 4 of a lower degree, as by Ralph Elliott teachings.

This new upcoming uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537. See the charts below.



weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






WTI OIL Bottoming Down

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL is very close to the support at 75.62-74.94. The sputtering downtrend is "kicking the bucket" and the start of a new uptrend is only hours away.

TARGETS

First down to the area 75.62-74.94
then up to the area 87.53-87.62

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the a-b-c-d-e will be completed by reaching the area 75.62-74.94 where a new uptrend should start shortly.

The 4-hour and 1-hour chart are clearly sounding the bell as OIL is staging the very last sub-minuette wave down to the target.


weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge




Gold bouncing to 1220?

Hi Traders,

GOLD (now at $1155) is performing the last rally to 1220 before resuming the very last ditch to the area around 1089. The present level of 1155 seems to be a good entry point for a short rally to 1200-1220.

BTW, once the downtrend resumes, it should stop around level 1089 or end a bit lower around the area at $1043-32 that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If this analysis is correct, this would mark the very end of the line for the 38 months downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

first up to:

likely: 1200
possibly: 1220
maybe: 1235


then down to

likely: $1089
possibly: $1043-$1032




ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the formation of wave 5 (in magenta, from March 16, 2014). Wave 5 will be made of 5 waves, three of them already completed and the fourth one in formation. 

After wave 4 up, the last wave down will follow (wave 5) which will complete major wave 4 downwards (from Sept 2011). 

The daily chart shows that "Wave 3" is completed and it's starting a rally to form wave four (in magenta) to 1200-1220-1231 

Wave 5 will then follow to establish the historical low at 1089 or a bit lower to the area 1043-1032.





weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge



4-hour chart - click to enlarge





Friday, 7 November 2014

SILVER approaching the ultimate target


Hi Traders,


SILVER (now at $15.33) is fast approaching the predicted target around $14.63.

The precious metal should end the downtrend above the $14.00 area that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If it's true, this would mark the end of the line for the 3.5 years downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

likely: $14.63

possibly: $14.00




ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and  weekly chart displays the nearing completion of both wave 5 (in red) and wave 3 (in magenta) which will both complete our major wave 4 downwards (in grey). 

The daily chart shows that  "Wave 5" (in magenta) is on the way to be completed as well but displays only 3 smaller waves down (in red) out of 5. 

Usually, the last wave down (daily chart) is made out of 5 waves. However, either my wave count is incorrect or this is a rare case of a final wave made of 3 waves only. 

BTW, it wouldn't make much difference. In either cases, it's almost over.






monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge





GOLD approaching the ultimate target

Hi Traders,

GOLD (now at $1134) is fast approaching the predicted target around 1089.

Even in the event of a breakout below this level, the yellow metal should end the downtrend above the area at $1043-32 that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If it's true, this would mark the end of the line for the 38 months downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

likely: $1089
possibly: $1043-$1032




ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the formation of wave 5 (in magenta) which will complete major wave 4 downwards (in grey). 

The daily chart displays "wave 1" and "wave 2" (in magenta). "Wave 3" is almost completed and it's made out of 5 smaller waves down (in red). 

Usually, the last wave down (weekly chart) is made out of 5 waves. However, either my wave count is incorrect or this is a rare case of a final wave made of 3 waves only. 

BTW, it wouldn't make much difference. In either cases, it's almost over.







weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






Thursday, 30 October 2014

NATURAL GAS STARTED MAJOR UPTREND

Hi Traders,

Natural Gas (now at 3800) started a major uptrend 2 days ago as predicted. It's now to retrace a bit to 3760-43 before resuming the uptrend to 3924-50. That should mark the top of "sub-minuette wave 1".

As you can see by the 2-hours chart below we're still plenty of time to get on board for a long position.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The  letter "C" at the bottom right of the chart marks the very end of major retracement wave C. That wave was part of large A-B-C downward correction started from the top at 6,481 on FEB 24, 2014. It bottomed at 3,537 on OCT 28.

TARGETS

first 3760-43
then 3924-50


PS: apologies for not providing more charts but I'm utterly busy.

Mario D. Conti. 






Wednesday, 29 October 2014

SPI200 end of the line?

Hi Traders,

The SPI200 (now at 2428) seems to be at the end of the line.

TARGETS

likely: 5345-5323
possibly: 3278-3267
maybe: 3221

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the a-b-c (or the a-b-c-d-e) in the making. Wave c downwards should end around 4925 or 4847.

The daily chart reveals that wave b is finished. Wave c downwards should be in the making already.

The 1-hour chart displays 9 waves up, marking the end of wave 3 up as expected.

NOTE: I honestly thought that it would have gone all the way up to the area 5494-5507 (theoretical target) before reversing.




Weekly chart - click to enlarge






Daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge





Monday, 27 October 2014

Natural Gas - Major Pivot Point



Hi Traders

The end of the line for Natural Gas (now at 3601) is very much in sight. This sputtering downtrend is to be followed soon by a significant reversal that would mark the beginning of a major uptrend.

The 1-hour chart (in the link below) displays the sub-minuette waves 1 and 2 (in green, bottom right) as part of a group of 5 waves down that should be fully formed at the beginning of the week.

At weekly and daily level, this is the very end of a major A-B-C retracement.
Hence, expect a major reversal.

TARGETS

first down to the area 3515-3475
then up to the area 4163-4187

for images please check on https://www.tradingview.com/x/kTQ7LKkd/
or
Natural Gas Major Pivot Point by mariodconti


Monday, 20 October 2014

GOLD triple bottom

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1241) has made a triple bottom around 1183 (see weekly chart and daily chart) and started a corrective rally as usual. At this stage, there's still no sign of  the typical set of waves that mark the end of the major downtrend started in Sept 2011.

Hence, Gold should make a new top in the area 1249-52 or even 1263-64 before resuming the downtrend to the area 1164-1154 and lower. HOWEVER, please read the "NOTE" below: there could be a surprise.


TARGETS

first up to
likely: area 1249-52
possibly: area 1257-60
maybe: 1268-69

then down to
likely: area 1164-1154
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)



ELLIOTT WAVES

GOLD is almost done with the very minor wave 4 upwards (1-hour chart and 4-hour chart). The new wave down following this temporary top should form the smaller wave 5 of the larger wave 3 (daily chart).

This little wave 5 should break through the support at 1182-83 and move down to the first of the targets above  mentioned (area 1164-1154). 


By The Way:

NOTE:

If the present rally tops much higher than predicted (at 1290-93 or even 1318-21, quite possible), then the wave count will need a re-assessment.

If this scenario occurs wave 3 (bottom right of the daily chart) will also take the name of "wave d" and this would extend target of the recent uptrend up to  1290-1321 to form "wave e".

"Wave e" would be followed by the very last leg down - in 5 smaller waves - to form the historical low (major wave 4, weekly chart) at 1064-1054, $1089 or $1043-$1032 and will mark the end of the 3 years downtrend.

Hence, if this scenario materialises, GOLD would need few more weeks to reach the bottom of major wave 4 (up to the last week of Dec 14).

The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable. 

If all this is true, a very major uptrend should then follow.






Weekly chart - click to enlarge






Daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 13 October 2014

USDJPY retracement

Hi Traders,

The a-b-c downtrend of the USDJPY (now at 107.52) should end in the area 106.80-106.62. It should be followed by a retracement up to the area 108.53-108.86 where the downtrend should resume once more.

TARGETS:

First down to: 106.80-106.62
Then up to:
likely: 108.31
possibly: 108.53-108.55
maybe: 109.11 - 109.13

ELLIOTT WAVES

The pattern in the making after Oct 1, 2014 is a big a-b-c retracement following a 9-waves-uptrend started on Oct 31, 2011 (see monthly chart and weekly chart).

If this is correct, the whole correction process might take up to 12 months to get the USDJPY down to 0.9830 area. That low should mark the end of wave 2 of a very major degree (see monthly chart).




Monthly chart - click to enlarge






Weekly chart - click to enlarge







Daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge









Wave oscillator on a 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Thursday, 9 October 2014

AUDUSD back to 0.90?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8867) has made a double bottom around 0.8660 and seems to be heading to 0.90.

The monthly and weekly chart display the double bottom and the support at 0.8660. The daily chart shows all the possible Fibonacci targets (blue horizontal lines).

TARGETS

T1: 0.8923-0.8935
T2: 0.8975
T3: 0.8997-0.9000
T4: 0.9068-0.9073
T5: 0.9109-0.9119

ELLIOTT WAVES

To understand the situation of the Elliott Waves we need to see the weekly chart. According to Ralph Elliott, every MAJOR WAVE 4 always ends within the territory of another WAVE 4 of a MINOR DEGREE (in the blue quadrant). In this case, the target was in the area 0.9405-0.8066.

The AUDUSD bottomed right in the middle at 0.86419. It has deployed 5 waves - daily chart -  and the last one was made of 5 waves itself - 4-hour chart.

A question arises: is this really the bottom of major wave 4? I wouldn't be so sure. Let's say that the last sharp drop in the weekly chart looks very much like an unfinished job. After this new uptrend, the Aussie might still display its  potential to drop to 0.83 and maybe much lower.

CONSEQUENTLY

If this new uptrend occurs in 3 waves only (daily chart) - possibly below 0.91800 - this could be a sign that it is a just a temporary retracement.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge





Weekly chart - click to enlarge





Daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Monday, 6 October 2014

GOLD to rebound

Hi Traders

GOLD (now at 1198) has reached the target at 1182 and it's now supposed to rebound to 1226 and higher

TARGETS:

First up to

likely: 1226
possibly: 1231-32
maybe: 1241-43

Then down to
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)


ELLIOTT WAVES

GOLD is bouncing back up to form the very minor wave 4 in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart.

Then Gold might finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or $1089. The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to forecast a low at $1050.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable


This final wave would be the "5th of the 5th of the 5th" in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart. It would also complete major wave 4 in the weekly chart. If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.






Weekly chart - click to enlarge





Daily chart - click to enlarge





Wave oscillator - daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge